How long are we really looking at with this situation? When will this run its course or be under control? Will it get better during the summer?
Dr. Adalja from Johns Hopkins: "I do believe we will see some seasonality with this virus like what occurs with other coronaviruses. However, it is unclear when we will see a peak because we have not done enough testing in the United States to really understand the true extent of infection. Without a vaccine, I do believe that this virus will be with us and be part of fall's respiratory virus season, however there is no evidence that it will be 'worse'."
Dr. Labus of UNLV: "It's impossible to say how long this outbreak will continue or what path it will take until it is finally over. Outbreaks spread because of the unique set of circumstances found in each community, so even if we could predict the broad path the outbreak would take, we still couldn't say what that means for you or for a particular city.
"No one knows what is going to happen with this virus next month, let alone next winter. While that is a possibility, there is no way to know if it is a realistic one at this point.
"Like the flu, respiratory diseases often circulate in the colder months. The biology of the organisms is one reason, with cooler temperatures helping some organisms survive longer outside the body. The other reason is that the weather changes our behavior. As the weather warms and we open windows and spend more time outside, we decrease our contact with other people. Warm weather could change the spread of the outbreak for these reasons, although we really can't say for certain."
WHY SO MUCH FUSS COMPARED TO THE FLU?
Why is this causing shut-downs and community quarantines, where normal flu outbreaks don't bring such measures? Is there something we are not being told that warrants these extra steps?
Dr. Adalja from Johns Hopkins: "This is a novel virus with a lot of uncertainty. That uncertainty is prompting governments to take actions that don't occur during ordinary circumstances."
Dr. Labus of UNLV: "We see flu every year and we know that quarantines are not useful in controlling it. Coronavirus quarantines are being used to stop the spread of disease from place to place, either to try to keep the disease out of certain communities or keep infected people in one place so that we can target our response to where the sick people are. If the virus becomes widespread, the quarantines won't make much sense at that point and we will shift to social distancing, which is intended to slow the spread of the outbreak."
IS THIS AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT?
Finally, are we looking at an existential threat here where all infrastructure and food supply becomes unworkable? Where do you think we'll be on the spectrum from inconvenience to global annihilation?
Dr. Adalja from Johns Hopkins: "This will be a serious pandemic but likely mild in nature. It will not be cataclysmic but there will be disruptions to daily life that people need to prepare for."
Dr. Labus of UNLV: "Epidemiologists are always hard to pin down on a question like this because we know that anything is theoretically possible. We think in terms of probabilities and margins of error. That being said, I have not been stockpiling toilet paper and water."
