Out of the 8, second year in a row... And we're in!

[noisetheory]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

cowboys winning tonight is not good for us.

as it stands
4 roosters 30 (+180) v warriors (a), storm (h), souths (h)
5 bulldogs 30 (+15) v rabbits (h), titans (a)
6 cowboys 28 (_175) v sharks (h), manly (a)
7 storm 28 (+64) v panthers (a), roosters (a), broncos (h)
8 eels 28 (-60) v knights (a), raiders (h)
9 BRONCOS 26 (+95) v dragons (h), storm (a)
10 warriors 26 (+93) v roosters (h), titans (h), panthers (a)

-roosters on 30 already and FA is 100 ahead of us. they actually have three tough games and could be in a bother if they lose tomorrow, but you'd think their FA will be good enough to get them through anyway..
-bulldogs get to 32 if they win one more game, which they should verse titans at home.
-cowboys get to 30 if they beat the sharks at home next week, and their For and Against is unbeatable.
-storm have a tough run but if they win 1 from 2 before us then they will be on 30 points and lets say around 65 FA
-eels have two easy games so you'd think they will get to 32.
-warriors we need to hope lose two out of three, starting tomorrow against the roosters, and then panthers away in rnd26.

not only do we need to win our last two games, but we need to hope for some BIG upsets i think. we need a big win v the dragons

if storm lose one of the games verse panthers and roosters, then it could well come down to storm vs broncos where BOTH teams are playing off to make the 8, not just us trying to get in.

 

[Ari Gold]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

Jeez, beating the Storm in Melb is a tough enough ask as it is, but to do it whilst their season is on the line too? Darn near impossible frankly. I think our best hope is that we win against the Dragons, Warriors lose to Rooster and Panthers and we scrape it on F/A

 

[noisetheory]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

even if warriors are out of the picture we still need one of the teams above us to drop out, or else we're still stuck in 9th. just cant see it happening to the storm so it would have to be eels.. or.. bulldogs?

 

[Foordy]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

cowboys winning tonight is not good for us.

I think what was worse was Parra beating Manly. because if Parra lost we would actually be in 8th place right now

 

[noisetheory]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

well thats correct. though post was made in hindsight of eels having won. i actually tipped the eels last night, haha.

 

[Ari Gold]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

even if warriors are out of the picture we still need one of the teams above us to drop out, or else we're still stuck in 9th. just cant see it happening to the storm so it would have to be eels.. or.. bulldogs?

True, I thought Warriors were 8th right now.

Could be Dogs, but problem is they are on 30, so we'd still need to beat the Storm to catch them. If we can beat the Storm then somehow I think we'd probably make it, but that's a massive ask.

Still, after throwing away the leads that we have this year, if we can't atone by beating the Storm, we don't deserve to be there.

 

[Art Vandelay]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

Assuming we win our remaining 2 games (because we're boned if we don't) this is the equation:

We need to finish ahead of 2 of the Warriors, Eels, Storm, Cowboys, Bulldogs and Roosters.

We will finish ahead of the:

Warriors if they lose 2 out of their remaining 3 or they lose 1 out of their remaining 3 and our F/A is better. We currently have a 7pt F/A advantage. The Warriors are at home to the Roosters and Titans and away to the Panthers. (Art Vandelay's Likelihood Rating: A little better than even money)

Eels if they lose either of their last 2. They are away to the Knights and Raiders. F/A should not be an issue. (Art Vandelay's Likelihood Rating: 2/5 stars)

Storm if they lose to us and either the Panthers or the Roosters, both of whom they are away to. F/A should not come in to play unless they destroy one of their NSW opponents and narrowly lose the other 2 matches. (Art Vandelay's Likelihood Rating: B+)

Cowboys if they lose in Townsville to both the Sharks and the Sea Eagles. F/A will not come into play, nor will the rest of this scenario because of the aforementioned Sharks. (Art Vandelay's Likelihood Rating: None percent chance)

Bulldogs ifthey lose to both the Rabbitohs at ANZ and the Titans on the Gold Coast. F/A will not be a concern. (Art Vandelay's Likelihood Rating: Less than I'd like)

Roosters if they lose to the Warriors in NZ and on home turf to both the Storm and Rabbitohs. And the net change in relative F/A over the course of our hypothetical 2 wins and their 3 losses is more than 85 points. (Art Vandelay's Likelihood Rating: Not a mathematical impossibility)

So even if we do everything right from here on we're relying on a lot of other results because of this crazy ladder.

 

[Taylor1921]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

I know we're coming off a big win. But sorry to break it to you all. We aren't gonna make the 8 this year. If cowboys and eels lost than it's a different story but they didn't. We have got the hardest last games compared to any chasing the 8. God please make a miracle.

 

[gordjw]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

[MENTION=8304]Art Vandelay[/MENTION] I love your rating scale!

 

[Art Vandelay]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

The Roosters did us a favour by demolishing the Warriors, though that does now ensure we can't overtake the Roosters. The Warriors could still erase a lot of the F/A damage next week against the Titans though so we can't rule them out yet. Hopefully the Roosters can continue their form next week against the Storm.

 

[badyon]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

I know winning last two games discounts the Dragons, but should still include them in the equation, at the least to be aware of how desperate they will be Friday.

Similarly, worth noting that the Storm can still lose to Roosters and Panthers and still make the 8.

The best chances, for the Broncs, is hoping that the Eels (lose to either newy or raiders) OR Storm completely fall over, AND we win last two games -- against desperate sides.

 

[Battler]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

Well, let's hope that Milford and Bennett do us a favour by beating the eels. I'd love to see us get in over the Storm.

 

[rnabokov]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

The only way I see us making the 8 is beating the Dragoons, then playing off for 8th v Storm and winning, which assumes the Storm lose their next 2 games, and then losing to us.

My view is that on current form and results, all the other teams in the equation will win enough of their games no problems to make at least 32 points. The max we can get is 30.

Such a pity the Eels beat Manly, against my expectations anyway.

 

[rnabokov]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

Well, let's hope that Milford and Bennett do us a favour by beating the eels. I'd love to see us get in over the Storm.

Somehow, I can't see that happening. I think the way the Eels are playing now, with Hayne and Sandow in the form they are now, they are actually in this with a real chance. Their in-your-face defence v Manly in the 2nd half was every bit as good as the Cowboys were v Souths.

Which goes to show you exactly why defensive line speed wins games, and is how you beat the best.

That is Bennett's job next year, and he hasn't been much chop with the Kniggots.

If only Barba had started the season at 5/8. Putting Hoffman there is enough reason for Hook to be sacked.

 

[Art Vandelay]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

The only way I see us making the 8 is beating the Dragoons, then playing off for 8th v Storm and winning, which assumes the Storm lose their next 2 games, and then losing to us.

My view is that on current form and results, all the other teams in the equation will win enough of their games no problems to make at least 32 points. The max we can get is 30.

Such a pity the Eels beat Manly, against my expectations anyway.

We have better points difference, so we only need them to lose one of their next 2 games.

 

[Battler]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

The Storm losing their next one or two games isn't completely out of the question, they are playing Penrith (who just somehow find a way to win, even though I don't rate them for the premiership) and a resurgent Roosters. I reckon they're in trouble on the basis of their current form, we just need to make sure that we beat the Dragons, because it would be a travesty to miss out on the eight for those fuckers.

 

[teampjta]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

Round 3 loss to Rosters - Last minute try - Should have won

Round 9 loss to Souths - 2 point loss (that said we were 14-zip after about 14 min)

Round 16 we lose the unlosable to Cronulla FFS - :shot: :rant: :yell:

Round 18 1 point loss to Panthers - beaten by a much more determined team, albeit with one player left on their bench

that's at least 6 from 8 we SHOULD have won,

At the other end of the scale, I just cant remember us winning a game that we shoulnt have won ????

In hindsight we should have been on 32 points, sitting comfortably in 4th (on +/-)

 

[Battler]

Re: Out of the 8, second year in a row

Round 3 loss to Rosters - Last minute try - Should have won

Round 9 loss to Souths - 2 point loss (that said we were 14-zip after about 14 min)

Round 16 we lose the unlosable to Cronulla FFS - :shot: :rant: :yell:

Round 18 1 point loss to Panthers - beaten by a much more determined team, albeit with one player left on their bench

that's at least 6 from 8 we SHOULD have won,

At the other end of the scale, I just cant remember us winning a game that we shoulnt have won ????

In hindsight we should have been on 32 points, sitting comfortably in 4th (on +/-)

And that was with our main man Hoffman playing in 5/8. If we can scrape into the eight with Barba and Hodges playing like they are now, we are in it with an actual chance (unlike fucking parra or the dragons. God I hope parra somehow drop out, but they'd have to pull a Souths-esque choke with their final two games being against rabbles).