PRE-GAME [Round 24, 2022] Broncos vs Eels

[Foordy]

Wasn’t Pereiras last game a bit of a shocker? I’m a bit worried about him and Staggs together.

wasn't great ... but is month before that (over the Origin period) was really good

 

[Johnny92]

Oh, I see your point but Palasia is pretty beaten up. He's definitely struggling a bit lately but he's certainly a good solid first grader. Yes, he's staying but he's not quite the metre gainer, tackling machine you might say. There really isn't that much more to the game than the evidence of their efforts.

Stats apply to everyone, no fear or favour and you would expect the best to have good stats and so it is. That's exactly what the stats show, consistency or lack thereof. Wasn't that the basis of that Moneyball movie, the players with the best stats over the distance?

Palasia did put in for us over the games Haas and co were out but make no mistake, he didn't do it alone. If RK had the minutes Palasia got that night he would have easily surpassed 200 metres, easily.

I like Palasia but please, don't be like the other nongs with their bullshit outright lies about errors, penalties and 6 agains for RK.
Anyway Palasia is sticking around and I'm looking forward to more from him.

Both Palasia and RK have done great this year and played well above their pay packets on quite a few occasions.

One sorta downfall I have with RK recently is he has been cutting a real fine line with giving away penalties eg. - laying/holding on the opposition abit long.. he's not giving away many penalties for it but he's so close and a few times I thought he should have been pinged for it. But I feel this might be a job Kev is sending him out with to slow down the ruck.

 

[Morkel]

Sorry guys, we are going to get flogged by 40. This isn't just the business end of the season for the clubs, this is where the rubber hits the road for the NSWRL.

I'm calling a Panthers vs Eels grand final now. The battle of the West. The Wild West. The West Side. The... left side of the compass.

Let's rule out the Broncos or Raiders early. Cannon fodder. That starts with either the valiant but erratic Raiders scraping in, or the over-achieving Broncos just holding on despite multiple late-season blowouts.

Sharks the same. More consistent, but still a long way away.

The Rabbitohs and Roosters left their run too late. They could beat anyone on their day, but their day won't be when they have to face one of the Westy crew. The NRL need to keep three quarters of the compass happy, but it's not the South or East that are in a battle with the Code That Shall Not Be Named.

Which leaves the Storm and Cowboys. Oh the storm will have been so brave, what with their massive injury toll meaning that seven million of their cap is sidelined while the remaining twelve million worth battle it out (we are of course including the elite player(s) that the NRL allowed them to borrow for their finals campaign). But not this year. They will have to be satisfied with their designated 3-4 year Premiership allocation.

And the Cowboys, the surprise packets of the NRL, like the Broncos, they were expected to be bottom 4 but their miraculously easy draw, 12-point "Ref Breeze" at their back, and unparalleled penalty-milking drills somehow invigorated them in 2022, which saw them become genuine chances. Until the Ref-Breeze at their backs suddenly shifts in the opposite direction and they all of a sudden suck.

Will the Panthers go back to back? Do they still have the "hunger" that teams so often lose after they just won the Big Dance? OF COURSE THEY DO! The NRL's declared Good Guy™ (despite nearly paralysing someone, or that time he risked the entire competition by entertaining the laydees during Covid lockdowns) was so heartbroken by his undeserved suspension that the Hunger was Hungrier than ever! While his halves partner (you may not know this, but he came up through the grades beside Cleary, would you believe it? These guys!) overcomes a Life Threatening Injury to triumphantly return just in time for their finals campaign! But it will be for nothing, because...

Everyone loves Sterlo, and he's a Toowoomba NSW legend and he's waited SO LONG to see his beloved Eeels win another one and it carries on the Western Sydney theme and they are losing a chunk of their good players so the window is about to close, and History and 36 years!!!

 

[Scorchie]

Hope nobody’s at the pokies tonight

 

[heartly87]

Oh, I see your point but Palasia is pretty beaten up. He's definitely struggling a bit lately but he's certainly a good solid first grader. Yes, he's staying but he's not quite the metre gainer, tackling machine you might say. There really isn't that much more to the game than the evidence of their efforts.

Stats apply to everyone, no fear or favour and you would expect the best to have good stats and so it is. That's exactly what the stats show, consistency or lack thereof. Wasn't that the basis of that Moneyball movie, the players with the best stats over the distance?

Palasia did put in for us over the games Haas and co were out but make no mistake, he didn't do it alone. If RK had the minutes Palasia got that night he would have easily surpassed 200 metres, easily.

I like Palasia but please, don't be like the other nongs with their bullshit outright lies about errors, penalties and 6 agains for RK.
Anyway Palasia is sticking around and I'm looking forward to more from him.

I thought RK was really good last year before his infection. Staph from memory, it really rocked him. From there he had to build back his size and confidence. I thought back then he was playing in a Petro style. I don't think that way now and really he doesn't do a lot for me. I don't think he is as bad as some say at all and I don't think Palasia is the best either. But when used correctly he has proven to be a solid dependable first grade prop. My real point is that guys who are going to be expected to play in finals going forward for us should be given the time on the field.

 

[Organix]

Sorry guys, we are going to get flogged by 40. This isn't just the business end of the season for the clubs, this is where the rubber hits the road for the NSWRL.

I'm calling a Panthers vs Eels grand final now. The battle of the West. The Wild West. The West Side. The... left side of the compass.

Let's rule out the Broncos or Raiders early. Cannon fodder. That starts with either the valiant but erratic Raiders scraping in, or the over-achieving Broncos just holding on despite multiple late-season blowouts.

Sharks the same. More consistent, but still a long way away.

The Rabbitohs and Roosters left their run too late. They could beat anyone on their day, but their day won't be when they have to face one of the Westy crew. The NRL need to keep three quarters of the compass happy, but it's not the South or East that are in a battle with the Code That Shall Not Be Named.

Which leaves the Storm and Cowboys. Oh the storm will have been so brave, what with their massive injury toll meaning that seven million of their cap is sidelined while the remaining twelve million worth battle it out (we are of course including the elite player(s) that the NRL allowed them to borrow for their finals campaign). But not this year. They will have to be satisfied with their designated 3-4 year Premiership allocation.

And the Cowboys, the surprise packets of the NRL, like the Broncos, they were expected to be bottom 4 but their miraculously easy draw, 12-point "Ref Breeze" at their back, and unparalleled penalty-milking drills somehow invigorated them in 2022, which saw them become genuine chances. Until the Ref-Breeze at their backs suddenly shifts in the opposite direction and they all of a sudden suck.

Will the Panthers go back to back? Do they still have the "hunger" that teams so often lose after they just won the Big Dance? OF COURSE THEY DO! The NRL's declared Good Guy™ (despite nearly paralysing someone, or that time he risked the entire competition by entertaining the laydees during Covid lockdowns) was so heartbroken by his undeserved suspension that the Hunger was Hungrier than ever! While his halves partner (you may not know this, but he came up through the grades beside Cleary, would you believe it? These guys!) overcomes a Life Threatening Injury to triumphantly return just in time for their finals campaign! But it will be for nothing, because...

Everyone loves Sterlo, and he's a Toowoomba NSW legend and he's waited SO LONG to see his beloved Eeels win another one and it carries on the Western Sydney theme and they are losing a chunk of their good players so the window is about to close, and History and 36 years!!!

Sad but oh so true. Although that Eels narrative seems a little contrived, it would be quite the story to tell. In such an up and down season to just click and come good when it counts (contrast to the Cows), oh but would that not sell some news?

 

[Organix]

Oh, I see your point but Palasia is pretty beaten up. He's definitely struggling a bit lately but he's certainly a good solid first grader. Yes, he's staying but he's not quite the metre gainer, tackling machine you might say. There really isn't that much more to the game than the evidence of their efforts.

Stats apply to everyone, no fear or favour and you would expect the best to have good stats and so it is. That's exactly what the stats show, consistency or lack thereof. Wasn't that the basis of that Moneyball movie, the players with the best stats over the distance?

Palasia did put in for us over the games Haas and co were out but make no mistake, he didn't do it alone. If RK had the minutes Palasia got that night he would have easily surpassed 200 metres, easily.

I like Palasia but please, don't be like the other nongs with their bullshit outright lies about errors, penalties and 6 agains for RK.
Anyway Palasia is sticking around and I'm looking forward to more from him.

Not to diss on RK (because I have found his service quite worthy this season), but stats can be used to say whatever one wants with enough selectivity. It's one of the reasons why Moneyball doesn't win premierships, and it doesn't work in every sport.

For example, based on statistics one can say that Payne Haas is an effective forward because he makes huge metres and has a fast PTB, but the reality is that the opposition allows him to roll slowly forward, keep his feet and allow the defensive line to reset until the call of held is made. But the statistics calculated only the time between the held call and the PTB, NOT the time that the defense used to reset the line. Using only statistics, Haas should be a world-beater, but in reality he isn't. Same with Gallen and his stat-padding metres on the 4th that often ended up stifling the attack and derailing the 5th tackle play.

The "best" becomes quite subjective when stats are misused. E.g., Kikau has the most errors of all the forwards, but he is one of the best. NAS has the most penalties of any forward, but he dominates compared to cleaner Haas.

Pick a stat. Any stat.

 

[Swordfish]

they got 5 announcements... putting on quite the show... announcing one every hour on 5 different platforms lol so far its jennings and ieremia one year extensions

Those Storm grubs tried desperately to make some gimmick noise when there's nothing just like how the grubs milk a penalty during a game. This time though, they puked all over themselves by playing such a marketing stunts. Arrogant grub pricks. Rot in hell.

 

[Huge]

Not to diss on RK (because I have found his service quite worthy this season), but stats can be used to say whatever one wants with enough selectivity. It's one of the reasons why Moneyball doesn't win premierships, and it doesn't work in every sport.

For example, based on statistics one can say that Payne Haas is an effective forward because he makes huge metres and has a fast PTB, but the reality is that the opposition allows him to roll slowly forward, keep his feet and allow the defensive line to reset until the call of held is made. But the statistics calculated only the time between the held call and the PTB, NOT the time that the defense used to reset the line. Using only statistics, Haas should be a world-beater, but in reality he isn't. Same with Gallen and his stat-padding metres on the 4th that often ended up stifling the attack and derailing the 5th tackle play.

The "best" becomes quite subjective when stats are misused. E.g., Kikau has the most errors of all the forwards, but he is one of the best. NAS has the most penalties of any forward, but he dominates compared to cleaner Haas.

Pick a stat. Any stat.

So, your view simply put appears to be this. A statistic can be misused. All statistics are able to be abused. All statistics are therefore unreliable and should be ignored. Right?

Or, statistics are useless until you find it useful to cite them.

I'm aware statistics can be manipulated but I don't see any issue with comparing statistics without introducing conditions or variables.

It seems most strange to me that every single professional team in any sport pay very close attention to statistics yet you think them uninformative and from your post, irrelevant.

 

[Organix]

So, your view simply put appears to be this. A statistic can be misused. All statistics are able to be abused. All statistics are therefore unreliable and should be ignored. Right?

Or, statistics are useless until you find it useful to cite them.

I'm aware statistics can be manipulated but I don't see any issue with comparing statistics without introducing conditions or variables.

It seems most strange to me that every single professional team in any sport pay very close attention to statistics yet you think them uninformative and from your post, irrelevant.

My point is that the eye test should also be taken as a valid measurement, and that any team in sport also employ scouts along with their statistics. Furthermore, statistics can only take you so far and sabremetrics, for example, are not as reliable under small sample size applications such as playoffs.

In knowing your tendencies to be contrarian or belligerent I did seek to preface my post with a positive about RK, so as not to end up in an internet based battle, but I was worried you'd take my post negatively.

My ultimate point in posting was simply to say that other posters (when not shitstirring) have valid appraisals that you may leverage stats to undermine, but you ought to be aware that stats aren't telling the whole story, and in most cases will be used to make arguments that suit a purpose. What sports teams look at are multiple statistics in context. Sometimes they get it right, sometimes they get it wrong. Just the same as the eye test.

You reducing my point down to a false logic statement is wholly unfair.

 

[Mightybroncs2k17]

I'm so nervous about this game it isn't funny! Not because it could decide our finals fate but because it could confirm my worst fears that we've gone back to 2020 bad.

Until recently every match i went into with a fear we'll have 50 put on us but i was sure we had turned a corner. My concern here is the Eels have a history of putting points on us, we've been in rubbish form and they are still in the hunt for top 4.

When we were going well during the middle of the season it was because our big names were earning their price tag. If we want to turn this rubbish around then Hass, Reynolds and Staggs need to be at their best. If those 3 don't stand up and lead us then it could be a long night.

 

[theshed]

I'm so nervous about this game it isn't funny! Not because it could decide our finals fate but because it could confirm my worst fears that we've gone back to 2020 bad.

Until recently every match i went into with a fear we'll have 50 put on us but i was sure we had turned a corner. My concern here is the Eels have a history of putting points on us, we've been in rubbish form and they are still in the hunt for top 4.

When we were going well during the middle of the season it was because our big names were earning their price tag. If we want to turn this rubbish around then Hass, Reynolds and Staggs need to be at their best. If those 3 don't stand up and lead us then it could be a long night.

It’s not gonna be pretty

 

[thenry]

Please lads. Give us something. Pay us back for supporting you the past few seasons.

Please.

 

[Organix]

@Huge The article here is what I am getting at.

How Much Do Statistics Matter In Determining Success In Sports?

Would sports teams be better if data scientists were running them? This question was originally answered on Quora by John Fernandez.

www.forbes.com

Basically, the players make the statistics and can shape how they matter, but identifying talent like Cyril Connell did with Locky and Webcke came from intuition first and foremost. Then it takes good coaching and individual effort/mentality to become a great player.

Statistics serve better (IMO) as indicators for the players and coaches on areas in which they can improve. Which is essentially what people are using them for on here when they point out errors, etc. All the run meters in the world don't matter if you're not putting the ball down correctly over the try line.

 

[Morkel]

Sad but oh so true. Although that Eels narrative seems a little contrived, it would be quite the story to tell. In such an up and down season to just click and come good when it counts (contrast to the Cows), oh but would that not sell some news?

I'll admit, the Eels story (regarding their promotion in order to stave off the AFL in the West) was not my conspiracy. One of the wonderful posters here brought it to our attention, but I am happy to run with it. It makes sense. The only way to make a player like Mitchell Moses look elite is to make sure that, even though 3 of his 4 OMG no look 30 metre spiral passes end up in the stands, is to give him enough chances to ensure that one will stick.

It's just another box ticked in the "reason this will work" list. Every team has a fairytale story to be told now, even the Warriors, you need a whole bunch of compelling reasons to get the NSWRL's favour.

 

[McHunt]

But Turpin's poor service out of dummy half, his lack of running, his lack of vision and game awareness is all good, is it Kev? He doesn't need to work on those, but Paix is being punished for not being a tackle bot like Turpin.

It's either he's got rocks in his head, or he's feeding us some bullshit and there's something else going on.

He surely can't be that oblivious, can he? A couple of bad tackles is going to hurt us less than our lack of spark out of dummy half.

Turpin and Walters are both high effort players, but neither can sustain it for a full half, let alone 80 minutes. Turpin has apparently developed a competitive eater appetite for tackling, and that's what he prioritizes. Kevvie has been pushing defence all year. He's doing what Kevvie wants. You'd have to assume. But he's not wanted next season, so his selection is inexplicable.

Billy is somewhat better at shovelling the ball off the ground and getting it to the next player beside him. Jake tends to take a couple more steps to get the same thing done. Neither are much good at it but Billy is somewhat quicker, and occasionally, but only occasionally, draws a defender and opens a gap. Jake rarely does that anymore. In play, Billy is probably somewhat better at distributing the ball and has a step we rarely see. Billy fancies himself as a 5/8th more than hooker and poses himself in attack somewhat more like one. But in practice he doesn't command the field like one. He's very much the bloke brought up from the lower grades to cover an injury.

Neither Jake nor Billy are, or will ever be, genuine spine members, in the way the likes of Harry Grant are. They're budget fill-ins, who give 100% but it's never going to be enough.

We've seen so little of Paix, and what we've seen hasn't been much different from what I described above. In the little we've seen there have been glimpses of him taking on the line himself and scoring and some half play that suggests he has more attacking upside than Jake and Billy. But he's never set the game on fire. He's been an incremental upgrade, at best. But maybe with some upside. We're hoping.

It's fashionable to bash Jake now. I see it everywhere. He's a free hit. Everyone is sure there's a solution there in the QLD Cup in the form of Cory Paix. All Kevvie has to do is sack Jake. While this escape exists, the focus will always be on Jake, and not Billy. But once Jake goes, who will we blame?

 

[Morkel]

@Huge The article here is what I am getting at.

How Much Do Statistics Matter In Determining Success In Sports?

Would sports teams be better if data scientists were running them? This question was originally answered on Quora by John Fernandez.

www.forbes.com

Basically, the players make the statistics and can shape how they matter, but identifying talent like Cyril Connell did with Locky and Webcke came from intuition first and foremost. Then it takes good coaching and individual effort/mentality to become a great player.

Statistics serve better (IMO) as indicators for the players and coaches on areas in which they can improve. Which is essentially what people are using them for on here when they point out errors, etc. All the run meters in the world don't matter if you're not putting the ball down correctly over the try line.

Forget it. Huge's mind is the sole bastion of humanity's ability to think critically and only consider the available evidence.

 

[Big Del]

Sorry guys, we are going to get flogged by 40. This isn't just the business end of the season for the clubs, this is where the rubber hits the road for the NSWRL.

I'm calling a Panthers vs Eels grand final now. The battle of the West. The Wild West. The West Side. The... left side of the compass.

Let's rule out the Broncos or Raiders early. Cannon fodder. That starts with either the valiant but erratic Raiders scraping in, or the over-achieving Broncos just holding on despite multiple late-season blowouts.

Sharks the same. More consistent, but still a long way away.

The Rabbitohs and Roosters left their run too late. They could beat anyone on their day, but their day won't be when they have to face one of the Westy crew. The NRL need to keep three quarters of the compass happy, but it's not the South or East that are in a battle with the Code That Shall Not Be Named.

Which leaves the Storm and Cowboys. Oh the storm will have been so brave, what with their massive injury toll meaning that seven million of their cap is sidelined while the remaining twelve million worth battle it out (we are of course including the elite player(s) that the NRL allowed them to borrow for their finals campaign). But not this year. They will have to be satisfied with their designated 3-4 year Premiership allocation.

And the Cowboys, the surprise packets of the NRL, like the Broncos, they were expected to be bottom 4 but their miraculously easy draw, 12-point "Ref Breeze" at their back, and unparalleled penalty-milking drills somehow invigorated them in 2022, which saw them become genuine chances. Until the Ref-Breeze at their backs suddenly shifts in the opposite direction and they all of a sudden suck.

Will the Panthers go back to back? Do they still have the "hunger" that teams so often lose after they just won the Big Dance? OF COURSE THEY DO! The NRL's declared Good Guy™ (despite nearly paralysing someone, or that time he risked the entire competition by entertaining the laydees during Covid lockdowns) was so heartbroken by his undeserved suspension that the Hunger was Hungrier than ever! While his halves partner (you may not know this, but he came up through the grades beside Cleary, would you believe it? These guys!) overcomes a Life Threatening Injury to triumphantly return just in time for their finals campaign! But it will be for nothing, because...

Everyone loves Sterlo, and he's a Toowoomba NSW legend and he's waited SO LONG to see his beloved Eeels win another one and it carries on the Western Sydney theme and they are losing a chunk of their good players so the window is about to close, and History and 36 years!!!

TLDR ...