NQ have a differential that is 110 better than us, are 2pts ahead of us and have fixtures against Souths, Sharks and Manly to come, the latter two at home.
We have the Knights, Dragons and Storm, the first two at home but crucially the last one away.
To finish ahead of NQ, we need to claim 3pts more than them, which essentially means we have to beat the Storm in Melb or the Sharks beat NQ in NQ. And even then, you have to assume NQ lose to Manly at home and we also beat the Knights and Dragons.
The chances of us finishing ahead NQ are basically 1%. '
Warriors have a 25pt differential better than us. They have the Roosters and Titans at home and then Penrith away. If the Roosters win this week, and we win by enough, then if the Panthers beat the Warriors we can possibly lose to the Storm by a narrow enough margin that we make it.
It is a hell of a lot to ask. If the Warriors beat the Roosters than it becomes an impossible ask.