View attachment 17523
Draw a fat red circle around Round 8 against Cronulla @ Suncorp. Judging on current form, that game will be the biggest one for us for this half of the season. I've given us losses against Penrith and Souffs in Sydney up to Round 10 but on current form, all the rest are entirely beatable.
Yes, going into Round 11 in the Top 4 would be comfortably overachieving, but you can only judge what's in front of you. We've got the Cows on Sunday, the Warriors @ Redcliffe next weekend, the Sombreros who are in horrible form then the Dogs again. Losing any one of those games at this point would be a big disappointment.
The bonus with that dogs game is it will be at Suncorp, but I feel it will be a very competitive match up as well.
If I'm looking at those matches I've got the following thoughts:
- Cows on Sunday: very winnable... if we hold the ball we should win. Our forward pack is better, Reynolds can control field position better and we have strike in the outside backs
- Warriors at Redcliffe: Also very winnable. Nice dry track with a day game on a Saturday. Nathan Brown is all over the shop with his selections and SJ should still be missing.... but Walsh is serious strike in their backline and their forward pack is no slouch. We will need to turn up to win.
- Roosters at Suncorp: In their current form the game is very winnable and we have matched up well against the roosters in the past.... but this game is 3 games away and the roosters were horrible tonight and Robinson is a fantastic coach so is every chance of fixing up their issues before too long. They have cows next week in Townsville (Yes that's correct 4 rounds in and the cows will have had 3 home games already)... they should win that and could blow out the cobwebs... OR they could lose due to traveling up north, which will have them absolutely desperate for a win the following week against us
- Dogs at Suncorp: They are definitely no slouch this year, especially when TPJ will be having 'hamstring issues' the week before playing us to be well and truly primed. Burton has already shown that he can trouble our back 3 even when kicking from his own half, so winning the field position battle won't make it a fait accompli. Again it will need to be another game we turn up for mentally to win.
If we keep turning up like we did for the first two rounds all those games are winnable... but we aren't a team full of veterans that have been playing grind it out wins for 2-3yrs and have become accustomed to it.
A guy like Riki is only just becoming an 80min defender, but he has a massive role being the protector of Reynolds. He did a fantastic job against the dogs, but he now needs to do that 24 games in a row.... that is his challenge.
Defence has not been our forte since like 2015 and even then it was very much heart in your mouth scramble defence... if this young team that has had very little success over the last 3 years or so doesn't turn up mentally, they will get absolutely smashed... Yes I still have bad memories of 2018 and losing to bottom placed teams when we were massive favourites.
What will deter that is having Capewell, Reynolds, Ryan and co in the lineup to enforce the culture and attitude required to win... Having the old heads in the squad setting the standards for the young men to follow and there being no excuses or shortcuts.
I'll continue to have reservations about us until I feel comfortable that we as a collective squad have become a battle hardened defensive unit... because that is what builds premiership teams.
We've done it for two games, but we need to do it for 22 more... and we need to do it when we're getting smashed... and then we need to do it the week after we've been smashed. It needs to become the norm
