Short Kickoffs and Drop-Outs

[Professor47]

Im not a fan of the short drop out either, however I believe a variation of it may work.

1. Should be used for the "hail mary" (i.e. game is absolutely almost over, and you just need a "football god" moment)
2. It should be the low punt drop out straight to a front rower so they might fumble, etc.
3. if it is going to be that classic 'short drop' out then, get ppl behind the ball so tries like the mitch kenny doesn't happen.
4. only do it when you are DOWN by 4 / judge context of game (i.e. momentum, time left, etc.)

 

[winslow_wong]

Im not a fan of the short drop out either, however I believe a variation of it may work.

1. Should be used for the "hail mary" (i.e. game is absolutely almost over, and you just need a "football god" moment)
2. It should be the low punt drop out straight to a front rower so they might fumble, etc.
3. if it is going to be that classic 'short drop' out then, get ppl behind the ball so tries like the mitch kenny doesn't happen.
4. only do it when you are DOWN by 4 / judge context of game (i.e. momentum, time left, etc.)

If it’s Hail Mary I’d go as far as getting a ring of players around the jumpers. Not only to pressure the catcher but more chance of fielding the bat down.

 

[Professor47]

If it’s Hail Mary I’d go as far as getting a ring of players around the jumpers. Not only to pressure the catcher but more chance of fielding the bat down.

Yep
At the end of the day, this is essentially why I don't like this play... I just feel like its a "desperate" play.

Perhaps usable at 0-0 , sometime in the first half, etc.
Definitely don't see a huge advantage of it late in the second half when the game is on the line.

As I mentioned, if you are going to do it, might as well do the low hard grubber punt, and pray for the best.
Again... once teams cover that... I just don't see the risk vs reward.

If anything, I'd go the other way, smash it down 50m + the way Locky used to do it back in the day, and try to get a tackle 1 on the 40.
OR
Work on a 'floater' type of dropout that goes 35-40m thats a REAL 50-50 can go anywhere type of 'bomb' drop out.

At the end of the day... if you are serious about winning titles... 5 mins to go... Surely you have to be able to back your D with a line drop out.
Defend 1-2 sets on your line, get the ball back and boot it downfield and defend another set and then its probably your ball with 1.5 mins ish to go...

 

[Scorchie]

I like them, but doing them repeatedly in a grand final aint it

 

[Alec]

It's not a "win big or lose big" play. The grand final mistake was an anomaly, the most a team usually loses is about 20 metres/2 tackles. Which also means the defensive line doesn't have to run an extra 50 metres (30metres forward from the goal line and 20 metres back after the first 2 tackles are done).

 

[Nashy]

It's not a "win big or lose big" play. The grand final mistake was an anomaly, the most a team usually loses is about 20 metres/2 tackles. Which also means the defensive line doesn't have to run an extra 50 metres (30metres forward from the goal line and 20 metres back after the first 2 tackles are done).

37% success rate this year. It doesn't matter how it spins, this is a shit tactic that rarely actually gives us the ball back, then an entire set in defence on our line.

How are people for this? I truly do not understand.

 

[Big Pete]

It would be interesting to see for the whole competition, but if anyone’s interested in the Broncos’ 2023 dropout stats (in every game before the grand final) they are below:

• They kicked 29 dropouts in total: 19 were short (up to 25m but usually 10-20m) and 10 were long.
• Of the short dropouts, the Broncos regained possession 7 times in that play (37% of the time).
• Of the long dropouts, they regained possession twice (bounced overhead).

Of course this doesn’t consider what happened in the remainder of the set. I think only 1 short dropout resulted in a penalty against the Broncos, but I would have to confirm this.

Awesome post, thanks for the hard work.

I'd be curious if Reynolds took all those short-drop outs and of those the opposition gained possession, how many times did they go onto score? Was the risk greater than the reward?

Because I was under the impression the stats would skew better for Reynolds and even so the ability to pull off a 180 over 1/3 of the time is big.

 

[Alec]

37% success rate this year. It doesn't matter how it spins, this is a shit tactic that rarely actually gives us the ball back, then an entire set in defence on our line.

How are people for this? I truly do not understand.

37% to potentially swing the momentum is worth it to me. I don't think starting your defensive set on your 10 metre vs your 30 metre line 2 out of every 3 times is that big a deal compared to the benefits of getting the ball back.

 

[Jimmy]

Awesome post, thanks for the hard work.

I'd be curious if Reynolds took all those short-drop outs and of those the opposition gained possession, how many times did they go onto score? Was the risk greater than the reward?

Because I was under the impression the stats would skew better for Reynolds and even so the ability to pull off a 180 over 1/3 of the time is big.

The breakdown is Reynolds 5/14, Walsh 2/4 and Madden 0/1, so a similar success rate for Reynolds.

Walsh's successful short dropouts were both against the Raiders in R26 where he placed them around the 20m mark and pretty close to the touch line - one was a Raiders knock on and the other one a Raiders escort.

I'm keen on knowing more about whether there were scoring plays in the set following the dropouts too so it might be something I go back to look at.

 

[winslow_wong]

37% to potentially swing the momentum is worth it to me. I don't think starting your defensive set on your 10 metre vs your 30 metre line 2 out of every 3 times is that big a deal compared to the benefits of getting the ball back.

Depends on the opposition I think. Probably wouldn’t want to be defending your line against the panthers who are most likely to score or get another repeat set

 

[Morkel]

37% to potentially swing the momentum is worth it to me. I don't think starting your defensive set on your 10 metre vs your 30 metre line 2 out of every 3 times is that big a deal compared to the benefits of getting the ball back.

37% is misleading. It sounds like a poor rate, except it's not like the alternative is like a 50/50 coin toss. If you don't go for it, it is a 100% (or let's say 95% because they may drop it) guarantee of the opposition getting the ball back. Admittedly about 20 metres further away from your line.

If there was a tactic that you could use to win a scrum against the feed, and it was 37% effective, you'd fucking go for it every time. Even if "failing" that attempt meant the opposition received an extra 20 metres of field position compared to not going for it.

 

[BroncsFan]

Awesome post, thanks for the hard work.

I'd be curious if Reynolds took all those short-drop outs and of those the opposition gained possession, how many times did they go onto score? Was the risk greater than the reward?

Because I was under the impression the stats would skew better for Reynolds and even so the ability to pull off a 180 over 1/3 of the time is big.

I think we're getting that 1/3 without putting a whole lot of training into it either.

Some were associated with the pure skill and technique from Reynolds getting it over the touchline before they could touch it... others were just Herbie or someone winning an aerial contest.

I think if we focussed any sort of energy into it those odds would go up, because Reynolds seems to drop it on a dime most of the time.

We could also switch it up and have Walsh with his left foot short drop to the right wing of Cobbo... could be a surprise tactic, because Walsh is right behind him on drop outs anyway.

 

[BroncsFan]

Depends on the opposition I think. Probably wouldn’t want to be defending your line against the panthers who are most likely to score or get another repeat set

If you don't go the short drop out against penrith then you're potentially just continually giving them the ball until they score.

If penrith know you're going long all day, then they're going to be looking for the short kick behind all the time, because they know they're just getting the ball back anyway.

 

[JayPee]

37% success rate this year. It doesn't matter how it spins, this is a shit tactic that rarely actually gives us the ball back, then an entire set in defence on our line.

How are people for this? I truly do not understand.

It's an entire set anyway. That set doesn't disappear. You are really hung up on the extra 20m you get by kicking it long? Thats if your drop kicker actually strikes it perfectly. I truly do not understand either.

 

[winslow_wong]

If you don't go the short drop out against penrith then you're potentially just continually giving them the ball until they score.

If penrith know you're going long all day, then they're going to be looking for the short kick behind all the time, because they know they're just getting the ball back anyway.

I guess the answer to all of this is that you need variety in your drop outs and it all comes down to backing your defence.

 

[Nashy]

It's an entire set anyway. That set doesn't disappear. You are really hung up on the extra 20m you get by kicking it long? Thats if your drop kicker actually strikes it perfectly. I truly do not understand either.

Who's kicking long kicks to the 30?

50/60m drop outs are pretty normal in footy. That's 40-50 extra M to set you defence correctly, to keep them out, and attempt to stop them with better field position, rather than trying to fight it out of our own 10.

Nothing in this thread has convinced me that the tactic is anything but dumb.

 

[Big Del]

it’s a high risk play regardless. Look at what happened on the weekend.

How many times have you seen that before ?
Very low percentage where one team gets clean possession , throws it away . Then no one has communicated to back up and catch it ? Leads to a try . Not many , if any .

Just do the things you practiced at training all year it will be fine .
Sending all the players to one side is not a good strategy and I doubt you will ever see it in an NRL match . Under 10s sure ...

 

[Morkel]

Who's kicking long kicks to the 30?

50/60m drop outs are pretty normal in footy. That's 40-50 extra M to set you defence correctly, to keep them out, and attempt to stop them with better field position, rather than trying to fight it out of our own 10.

Nothing in this thread has convinced me that the tactic is anything but dumb.

It's not where the ball gets kicked to, it's where the first tackle is made. Normally on the 30 or 35 metre line. Whereas if the opposition snatch the short kick-off it'll be 10 - 15 metres out. Hence the ~20 metre difference.