- Mar 5, 2008
- 30,081
- 19,062
Zipping now out of the Cup as well!!!
Spring Racing
- Thread starter m1c
- Start date
I am gutted that Vigor came 25th in the order especially when you look at some of the donkeys particularly from overseas that Vigor would crush in the cup. Now I have to completely re-think my betting for Tuesday but I am definately pretty keen on Roman Emperor and despite a poor barrier draw think Shocking showed plenty today to suggest he will be charging home as well.
The Gymp said:
Not sure if Vigor could have won the Cup Gymp but I agree with you 100% about the make up of the field. How can a horse who runs 3rd in the Caulfield Cup be put out of a race by some of these poor excuses for stayers. I reckon there are only 7 horses who are any chance of winning or running a place in the Cup - Viewed, Roman Emperor, Alcopop, Warringah, Daffodil, Shocking and Leica Ding. The others are making up the numbers. I am sticking with my selections from a couple of weeks ago - Roman Emperor to win from either Viewed, Alcopop or Daffodil
Even though I'll be backing Viewed at the TAB, I'll be very happy if Roman Emperor gets up - drew it in the big sweep at work and a win will give me $720. Hell, I'll even take second for $320 or third for $200 if I have to! Actually, that will be a much better result cause I'm sure I'm not going to put $150 on Viewed to come up with the same prize money!
- Thread starter
- #99
My take on the race. I got very bored at work today haha
Winning chances, in order.
As a rule am leaving out the imports and the girls. History agrees with me.
Viewed – Going super, 5L better than he was this time last year. Only rises 1kg from a dominant Caulfield Cup victory. Whilst he didn’t go around a horse, he was running away and then eased up at the end. He’ll get another gun run here and with similar weight pulls it’s going to take more than an extra kg for anything he beat 2 weeks ago to turn the tables. Trainer and extra 800m to suit; deserved favorite and the one to beat.
C’est La Guerre – Forgive his last start when injuring his back mid run. This would be a concern had he been from any other stable, however Williams has shown he can make the tough calls and has a history of scratching his horses in the big ones if they aren’t 110%. Whilst caught in traffic in the Turnbull, he worked home just as well as - if not better than - Bart’s 2 that quinellaed the Caulfield Cup next start. In his only other look at Flemington this preparation he put in a fast finishing 4th over 1600 before being ridden upside down in the Underwood. Proven 2 miler set only for this. Has drawn an alley and if Hall can get him out at the top of the straight he’ll run into the finish.
Alcopop – The unknown quantity. Coming off the back of some seriously impressive wins. Drawn a good gate and should be within striking distance at the top of the straight to unleash his lethal turn of foot. Victories however may have been flattered by average fields and Shocking’s poor racing manners. A few cons in Rookie trainer, average jock and never headed to this race until about a month ago! The fact the Cups King describes his unorthodox preparation as “surprising tactics” could be the final nail, and at $5 he’s under the odds.
Master O – Racing as well as ever however his winning chances were once more cruelled by the barrier draw. Will drop out to last and by the time Vlad the impaler works him into the race this years winner will be off and gone. Great record over staying trips. Has been finishing his races off strongly all preparation and expect no different here. A definite place chance.
Roman Emperor – Great staying record with a win and a 2nd from his 2 goes over 2400 – both in Group 1 company. Has the Cummings polish however unusually did not run on Derby day as 11 of his 12 Cup winners have. Tricky alley in 15 and being by Monteju, queries remain over his ability to run out a strong 3200 on good ground. Will struggle to make up the 2L on stalemate Viewed. I feel he needs all favors in running to perform well here.
Shocking – Coming off one of the most impressive wins of the spring and has been running on well behind the impressive Alcopop. Gets in on a featherweight and upon viewing the videos I don’t think there is much between this one and 2nd favorite besides his nasty habit of wanting to lay in. The rails run last start meant the jockey was finally able to fully let him down, however having drawn in the car park he’ll be getting no such favors this time. Doubts also on his breeding, being out a Danehill dam and with Street Cry’s being a relatively unknown quantity past 2400. Will drop out to the tail, however just to run into the placings will require a superhuman effort from Brown. Needs to mend his racing manners before I can have him.
Others for the multiples
Zavite – From gate 3 can find cover behind some of the Europeans and Fiumicino, who will have no option but to cross from the widest barrier. Should relish others doing the donkey work and has the ability to run out a strong 3200 as proven with his Adelaide Cup victory. Trainer says he is only looking for 2 miles these days, set for this.
Leica Ding – Featherweight, barrier 2. Class query however should get one of the runs of the race. Came over the top of them with a big run home from near last in the Geelong Cup. Trainer is a plus, accomplishing a similar feat with She's Archie in the 2003 version, training her to second in both the Geelong and Melbourne Cups.
Mourilyan – The best of the imports. Has super European form to gun stayer Schiaparelli. Will get the distance and won’t know itself with a mammoth weight drop. Will be ridden quietly; however I have queries as to whether he has the turn of foot to match the natives. No previous Australian run a big negative.
Basaltico – Loathe to leave out a Cumani horse after the last few years. One of the only overseas trainers who has cottoned on to what sort of horse is needed to run well out here. Missed the kick and got lost in the Geelong Cup, knockout place chance.
Wet
Load up on C’est La Guerre. Whilst Fuimicino, Newport and Ista Kareem are musts for the multiples
Winning chances, in order.
As a rule am leaving out the imports and the girls. History agrees with me.
Viewed – Going super, 5L better than he was this time last year. Only rises 1kg from a dominant Caulfield Cup victory. Whilst he didn’t go around a horse, he was running away and then eased up at the end. He’ll get another gun run here and with similar weight pulls it’s going to take more than an extra kg for anything he beat 2 weeks ago to turn the tables. Trainer and extra 800m to suit; deserved favorite and the one to beat.
C’est La Guerre – Forgive his last start when injuring his back mid run. This would be a concern had he been from any other stable, however Williams has shown he can make the tough calls and has a history of scratching his horses in the big ones if they aren’t 110%. Whilst caught in traffic in the Turnbull, he worked home just as well as - if not better than - Bart’s 2 that quinellaed the Caulfield Cup next start. In his only other look at Flemington this preparation he put in a fast finishing 4th over 1600 before being ridden upside down in the Underwood. Proven 2 miler set only for this. Has drawn an alley and if Hall can get him out at the top of the straight he’ll run into the finish.
Alcopop – The unknown quantity. Coming off the back of some seriously impressive wins. Drawn a good gate and should be within striking distance at the top of the straight to unleash his lethal turn of foot. Victories however may have been flattered by average fields and Shocking’s poor racing manners. A few cons in Rookie trainer, average jock and never headed to this race until about a month ago! The fact the Cups King describes his unorthodox preparation as “surprising tactics” could be the final nail, and at $5 he’s under the odds.
Master O – Racing as well as ever however his winning chances were once more cruelled by the barrier draw. Will drop out to last and by the time Vlad the impaler works him into the race this years winner will be off and gone. Great record over staying trips. Has been finishing his races off strongly all preparation and expect no different here. A definite place chance.
Roman Emperor – Great staying record with a win and a 2nd from his 2 goes over 2400 – both in Group 1 company. Has the Cummings polish however unusually did not run on Derby day as 11 of his 12 Cup winners have. Tricky alley in 15 and being by Monteju, queries remain over his ability to run out a strong 3200 on good ground. Will struggle to make up the 2L on stalemate Viewed. I feel he needs all favors in running to perform well here.
Shocking – Coming off one of the most impressive wins of the spring and has been running on well behind the impressive Alcopop. Gets in on a featherweight and upon viewing the videos I don’t think there is much between this one and 2nd favorite besides his nasty habit of wanting to lay in. The rails run last start meant the jockey was finally able to fully let him down, however having drawn in the car park he’ll be getting no such favors this time. Doubts also on his breeding, being out a Danehill dam and with Street Cry’s being a relatively unknown quantity past 2400. Will drop out to the tail, however just to run into the placings will require a superhuman effort from Brown. Needs to mend his racing manners before I can have him.
Others for the multiples
Zavite – From gate 3 can find cover behind some of the Europeans and Fiumicino, who will have no option but to cross from the widest barrier. Should relish others doing the donkey work and has the ability to run out a strong 3200 as proven with his Adelaide Cup victory. Trainer says he is only looking for 2 miles these days, set for this.
Leica Ding – Featherweight, barrier 2. Class query however should get one of the runs of the race. Came over the top of them with a big run home from near last in the Geelong Cup. Trainer is a plus, accomplishing a similar feat with She's Archie in the 2003 version, training her to second in both the Geelong and Melbourne Cups.
Mourilyan – The best of the imports. Has super European form to gun stayer Schiaparelli. Will get the distance and won’t know itself with a mammoth weight drop. Will be ridden quietly; however I have queries as to whether he has the turn of foot to match the natives. No previous Australian run a big negative.
Basaltico – Loathe to leave out a Cumani horse after the last few years. One of the only overseas trainers who has cottoned on to what sort of horse is needed to run well out here. Missed the kick and got lost in the Geelong Cup, knockout place chance.
Wet
Load up on C’est La Guerre. Whilst Fuimicino, Newport and Ista Kareem are musts for the multiples
- Mar 4, 2008
- 10,552
- 5,383
i put:
$5 each way on Leica Ding
$5 each way on Cest Le Guerre
Box trifecta including: Leica Ding, Cest La Guerre, Viewed & Allez Wonder
might put $10 for the win on Viewed as well
$5 each way on Leica Ding
$5 each way on Cest Le Guerre
Box trifecta including: Leica Ding, Cest La Guerre, Viewed & Allez Wonder
might put $10 for the win on Viewed as well
Bannermania
NRL Captain
- Mar 5, 2008
- 3,709
- 0
Whoever tipped Shocking. I tip my hat to you sir/s. 10-1.
Nice.
Nice.
- Mar 4, 2008
- 10,552
- 5,383
Tony Brassell did, hes a genius
Shocking!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! My poor run has stopped. Thought it was a sure thing after his commanding win on Saturday over 2500m, he cruised home and then switched off made me think he would have plenty of petrol for today. Did he ever! caught wide the whle run and it didn't matter, what a champion this horse could become!
Jeba
International
- Mar 4, 2008
- 6,501
- 244
Well done to Shocking, and in particular to Mark Kavanagh and Corey Brown - they deserve it more than anyone.
Viewed should have won - Brad's ride was a shocker. If he kept him just worse than midfield instead of letting go back to last, Bart wins his 13th cup. Simple. Viewed could've run another lap, plenty left in the tank.
Also thought Daffodil was unlucky. Wouldn't have won but could've ran into some prize money had Leica Ding not have nearly made her fall.
Viewed should have won - Brad's ride was a shocker. If he kept him just worse than midfield instead of letting go back to last, Bart wins his 13th cup. Simple. Viewed could've run another lap, plenty left in the tank.
Also thought Daffodil was unlucky. Wouldn't have won but could've ran into some prize money had Leica Ding not have nearly made her fall.
