Spring Racing

[Dexter]

I can only remember 1 other big race when a horse has got such a dream run from near last and that was Gurners Lane in the 1984 Melb Cup which only came around 1 horse.
Interesting to see what penalty they give viewed, I would expect at least 1.5 kg.

I thought Master O Reillys' run was enormous for the MC.

 

[Beachy]

Viewed shouldn't get any more than a 1kg penalty from what I'm hearing

 

[Dexter]

Yeah, a lot of the commentators are pushing that line, maybe talking out their back pockets though, I really don't think the stable were expecting a win, just a good run on effort.

 

[Russo]

I liked the run of Daffodil for the MC for mine

 

[Beachy]

Yeah, a lot of the commentators are pushing that line, maybe talking out their back pockets though

It was the chief handicapper pushing the line actually [icon_wink

 

[Dexter]

This is the only thing I have seen from Greg Carpenter re the handicap.

Just for the record, I hope he gets .5kg as I took $17 2 weeks ago. [icon_wink
He got me yesterday, I was on R Emp. win only.

Racing Victoria Ltd chief handicapper Greg Carpenter said he would announce any penalty for Viewed tomorrow, but gave Cummings some hope that the penalty would not be excessive. He said that the higher a horse was weighted, the greater the impact of a penalty so Viewed may get as low as 1.5 kilograms or as high as two kilograms

http://www.theage.com.au/news/sport/hor ... 74603.html

 

[Beachy]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/racing/bart-cummingss-weighty-wait/story-e6frfg96-1225787911774

He was also just on TVN talking about it with Shane Templeton. From what he's saying, he won't be getting any more weight than Efficient, which should mean he won't get any more than a 1kg penalty.

I was on Roman Emperor yesterday too. Eachy way though so at least I got something back. Wish they could've stopped the race at the 200m!!

 

[Dexter]

I wish it wasn't Allez Wonder in front of him around the turn another jock may not have been so kind.

 

[Jeba]

Cox Plate week this week. This race is always the most intriguing of the year.

Whobegotyou is a very good horse but I can't take $2.40 about anything in a Cox Plate unless it's against the names Sunline or Northerly.

Just hope there is speed in the race last year. I was stoked with the result last year because I did back Maldivian, but really, the race was a bit of a farce and Zipping should've won. I hope Zipping wins it, he deserves a Group 1 more than any other horse in Australia.

 

[m1c]

Turns out Efficient is skipping the Plate and going straight into the Cup. The two equal top weights (as of tomorrow) are definitely the ones to beat. I can't believe the hype around the other favorites in Speed Gifted and especially Alcopop, would not go near them at their current prices!! Will be very surprised if one of Efficient, Viewed, Cest La Guerre or Master O aren't first past the post. Efficient is just pure class and the Williams camp definitely know how to win one.

A bit of sad news from the weekend with Maldivian retired to Living Legends and Predatory Pricer doing a suspensory.

 

[Jeba]

That's a big call on Alcopop there m1c. I can understand you not wanting to get caught up in the Speed Gifted hype, but I don't really know where you can fault Alcopop at the moment.

In saying that I agree that the two previous Cup runners are clearly the ones. I would love to see them fighting it out with a furlong to go, would take you back to the good old days of Sunline v Northerly. Two genuine superstars of the turf!!!

 

[Dave]

Will be very surprised if one of Efficient, Viewed, Cest La Guerre or Master O aren't first past the post. Efficient is just pure class and the Williams camp definitely know how to win one.

How can you say Speed Gifted and Alcopop are just "hype" horses and have Master O and Cest La Guerre in your only 4 winning chances for the cup? Neither Master O or Cest La Guerre have won a race in 2 years - both horses continue to suck punters in - running home late for 6th or 7th but in reality Master O won a false Caulfield Cup and Cest La Guerre hasn't looked like winning a race in Australia. At least Speed Gifted & Alcopop are in winning form

 

[m1c]

Anyone lining up to take $7 about Alcopop has rocks in their head. For something untried at the distance that's been on a Melbourne Cup path for only a matter of weeks... The reality is that Stephens is a young and inexperienced trainer sending his first horse to the Cup as an after thought.... Up against the best trainers in the land who have done it all before and have had their horses - proven 2 milers - set for this for the entire year.

Whilst winning impressively Alcopop has beaten b graders at best. $7 is huge unders.

I'll give you Master O Dave - he's just a favorite of mine - but after Cest La Guerre's run last year there is no way you can over look him. Got smashed at the top of the straight and ran home better than anything else. The Williams camp nominated him as their number 1 cup horse this year and I have no reason to doubt them. Efficient never fired a shot in the lead up to his 07 win and I havn't been expecting too much of Cest either. His only goal is the first Tuesday in Nov. They have a smart one here and IMO $21 about him is much better than the $7 for Alcopop

 

[Jeba]

Sweet. Can I get a thousand to fifty each way please!

 

[Dave]

I just don't think Cest La Guerre is as good as Lloyd says he is - Alcopop is shorter in the market because he is in better form. There is no way he is a doubt at the 3200 and he has better staying form than CLG. I don't buy the "not proven at 3200m" argument - reality is that we only run 3 races at 3200 during the year and it would be impossible to have a horse ready for all 3 so it is very hard for them to "prove" themselves. I would be very surprised if, other than horses who have won more than one MC, any winning MC horse in recent history had actually won over 3200m before they won the cup.

Alcopop may not win the cup this year but he is the prototype for modern day cup runners - progressive stayer with a really sharp sprint. I would take the $7 (If I hadn't already taken better odds) because I think he can win - I don't think CLG can so to me the $21 on offer for him is unders - unless the track is a bog he won't carry any of my hard earned. Efficient is Lloyd's best chance by far I reckon

 

[Jeba]

My avatar indicates that I love Cest La Guerre but apart from the few dollars I had on him when the markets opened that, he won't see another cent from me unless the track is at least a slow 6. In fact he is probably the last I would back out of Lloyd's 3.

 

[Beachy]

C'est Le Geurre couldn't win the MC if he started now IMO.

Speed Gifted is flying under the radar for mine (as much as you can be flying under the radar when you're $7 for the Cup). He smashed the field in the Metrop. In that race, Fiumicino was beaten 7L on his preferred soft surface, and he came out and ran a good race on Saturday, getting within about 4L of Viewed on a dryish track. There is good money around for SG this Saturday in the Cox Plate (into $7.50 at certain agencies - hope he wins ... I got $34 before they officially announced he'd skip the Caulfield Cup :D ), and also good money on the multis for him to do the Cox Plate/Melbourne Cup double.

It's not often you can say this, but I think the bookies have got the Melbourne Cup market pretty much spot on. I can't see anything outside the top 5 in betting winning the race (the top 5 being Efficient, Viewed, Speed Gifted, Alcopop and Roman Emperor).

On the Cox Plate, they're kidding themselves if they don't put So You Think into the field. I'm partly talking through my wallet as I've got him going at 30s, but I reckon it's great to see a quality 3yo in the field as it adds another dimension and more hype to the race (eg. Samantha Miss and Miss Finland)

 

[Jeba]

They're mad if they don't give So You Think a run. On his record, you could argue he shouldn't be there, but as you said Beach the Cox Plate is a much better race when there are 3yo's there. I am partly talking through my kick here - but gee it would've been good if Trusting ran well in the Guineas and pressed onto the Cox Plate. I still think he is the best of the current batch of 3yo's and will prove that in the Autumn.