Spring Racing
- Thread starter m1c
- Start date
Jeba
International
- Mar 4, 2008
- 6,501
- 244
Here is my Cox Plate preview.
1. EL SEGUNDO
Winner on this day 2 years ago and could well do it again. Knows this race better than anyone and the stable will have his timing perfect. The only thing that stops me making him a winning chance is his barrier as I think they will be forced to go right back to last, and I think he is much better suited just worse than midfield. For that reason, I'd say he could run a place.
2. ZIPPING
Drawn very well and should've won the race last year if it weren't for the leader getting it all his own way and the jockey getting away with murder. Will get his chance this year with the speed drawn out wide and I think he is tremendous value at $18.
3. VISION AND POWER
Proven weight for age performer but he's not going as well now as he was in the autumn, and he needs to be. I don't think he can win this one.
4. NOM DU JEU
I think he is a stayer rather than a middle-distance performer. Might run a nice race but I doubt he can win.
5. SCENIC SHOT
You just never know with this bloke. He can pull out a bottler or a shocker. For that reason I just cannot put my hard earned on him. That and I think weight-for-age in this class will be a bit too much of a task for him.
6. BLACK PIRANHA
I think his run in the Toorak was one of the best of the day. Not many horses made ground on the day, but this one did, and he had a lot of trouble getting into the clear. Went past plenty of them in the last 100m. Another one who I think is really good value and a great each way bet.
7. SIR SLICK
Can't win but I am glad he is in the race. And I am glad that he has drawn wide. This will ensure a good tempo and every horse will get their chance.
8. ROAD TO ROCK
Won't be beating Black Piranha this time. I doubt he will figure anywhere in the finish, no upto this class.
9. SPEED GIFTED
One you cannot write off, and a must for the quaddie. It'll be interesting to see what they do from the barrier, might even go forward. Hard to say. Either way - put him in the quaddie!!!
10. WHOBEGOTYOU
Unless his name starts with K, and ends with ingston Town, there is no way I can take $2.50 about anything in a Cox Plate. I would even be hesitant to put him in the quaddie to be honest, as I think a few will have his measure here. All the pressure is on him, the gate is not ideal, all signs point to PLACE CHANCE ONLY!!!! You heard it here first icon_thumbs_u
11. HEART OF DREAMS
This horse is going fantastically and is an absolute MUST for all exotics. At the moment I reckon he represents bullet-proof each way value. Ridden upside down last start, they will not make the same mistake from the perfect barrier.
12. ROCK KINGDOM
One of Gai's, and one that has no hope despite winning the Epsom. That was on a bog track and against nothing special, and he won't be winning in this class.
13. MANHATTAN RAIN
Another of Gai's, and another with no hope. Good to have him in the race to ensure the speed but he can't hold on.
14. SO YOU THINK
Good to see him in the field but I doubt he can win. Word is he wobbled a bit the other morning and so many 3yo's over the years have come into this race with better form, yet have failed. I doubt he can win.
THE TIP
A cracker of a race. Make sure you put these in your quaddie - Zipping, Black Piranha, Speed Gifted, Heart of Dreams. Of those 4, if I could only back one of them for the win, I would back Zipping.
Good luck icon_thumbs_u
1. EL SEGUNDO
Winner on this day 2 years ago and could well do it again. Knows this race better than anyone and the stable will have his timing perfect. The only thing that stops me making him a winning chance is his barrier as I think they will be forced to go right back to last, and I think he is much better suited just worse than midfield. For that reason, I'd say he could run a place.
2. ZIPPING
Drawn very well and should've won the race last year if it weren't for the leader getting it all his own way and the jockey getting away with murder. Will get his chance this year with the speed drawn out wide and I think he is tremendous value at $18.
3. VISION AND POWER
Proven weight for age performer but he's not going as well now as he was in the autumn, and he needs to be. I don't think he can win this one.
4. NOM DU JEU
I think he is a stayer rather than a middle-distance performer. Might run a nice race but I doubt he can win.
5. SCENIC SHOT
You just never know with this bloke. He can pull out a bottler or a shocker. For that reason I just cannot put my hard earned on him. That and I think weight-for-age in this class will be a bit too much of a task for him.
6. BLACK PIRANHA
I think his run in the Toorak was one of the best of the day. Not many horses made ground on the day, but this one did, and he had a lot of trouble getting into the clear. Went past plenty of them in the last 100m. Another one who I think is really good value and a great each way bet.
7. SIR SLICK
Can't win but I am glad he is in the race. And I am glad that he has drawn wide. This will ensure a good tempo and every horse will get their chance.
8. ROAD TO ROCK
Won't be beating Black Piranha this time. I doubt he will figure anywhere in the finish, no upto this class.
9. SPEED GIFTED
One you cannot write off, and a must for the quaddie. It'll be interesting to see what they do from the barrier, might even go forward. Hard to say. Either way - put him in the quaddie!!!
10. WHOBEGOTYOU
Unless his name starts with K, and ends with ingston Town, there is no way I can take $2.50 about anything in a Cox Plate. I would even be hesitant to put him in the quaddie to be honest, as I think a few will have his measure here. All the pressure is on him, the gate is not ideal, all signs point to PLACE CHANCE ONLY!!!! You heard it here first icon_thumbs_u
11. HEART OF DREAMS
This horse is going fantastically and is an absolute MUST for all exotics. At the moment I reckon he represents bullet-proof each way value. Ridden upside down last start, they will not make the same mistake from the perfect barrier.
12. ROCK KINGDOM
One of Gai's, and one that has no hope despite winning the Epsom. That was on a bog track and against nothing special, and he won't be winning in this class.
13. MANHATTAN RAIN
Another of Gai's, and another with no hope. Good to have him in the race to ensure the speed but he can't hold on.
14. SO YOU THINK
Good to see him in the field but I doubt he can win. Word is he wobbled a bit the other morning and so many 3yo's over the years have come into this race with better form, yet have failed. I doubt he can win.
THE TIP
A cracker of a race. Make sure you put these in your quaddie - Zipping, Black Piranha, Speed Gifted, Heart of Dreams. Of those 4, if I could only back one of them for the win, I would back Zipping.
Good luck icon_thumbs_u
With the barrier draw done I think Heart of Dreams is top pick - has really proven himself at weight for age this Spring and is going to get a lovely run right behind the speed. Have to respect Whobe but as said above from a punting perpsective you can't be jumping on now at $2.40 when you could have got 4 or 5 times that earlier in the Spring.
Value hopes are Black Piranha (hasn't finished further back than 4th in his last 17 runs with a large % of those being Group 1) and Zipping - both will be $12 or more and will give you a great run for your money. The Williams camp are very upbeat about Zipping and with the speed on he may be the one to peel out on the turn and run home hard.
My heart will be with El Segundo though - trainer lost his wife to cancer in the last 3 months and everything he has done with the horse has been with this race in mind. I would love to see him win a 2nd Plate and we all know Moonee Valley always has a sense of theatre about it on Cox Plate day.
Value hopes are Black Piranha (hasn't finished further back than 4th in his last 17 runs with a large % of those being Group 1) and Zipping - both will be $12 or more and will give you a great run for your money. The Williams camp are very upbeat about Zipping and with the speed on he may be the one to peel out on the turn and run home hard.
My heart will be with El Segundo though - trainer lost his wife to cancer in the last 3 months and everything he has done with the horse has been with this race in mind. I would love to see him win a 2nd Plate and we all know Moonee Valley always has a sense of theatre about it on Cox Plate day.
I'm with Jeb - the pressure and expectation lies solely on Whobegotyou, and anything under even $5 in the odds is farking ridiculous when it comes to a Cox Plate imo. The draw isn't ideal and there's plenty of quality in the race. Field - Whobegotyou - Field could be the option for the trifecta here!
Glad a lot of idiots will take the short cash about him, and will also no doubt jump on Rock Kingdom after the Epsom.
I think Zipping, Black Piranha and Speed Gifted are the best here. Will include Heart of Dreams and Scenic Shot in there for a five horse boxed trifecta. Whobegotyou will undoubtedly place, but the collect on the exotics with him involved will be minimal.
Glad a lot of idiots will take the short cash about him, and will also no doubt jump on Rock Kingdom after the Epsom.
I think Zipping, Black Piranha and Speed Gifted are the best here. Will include Heart of Dreams and Scenic Shot in there for a five horse boxed trifecta. Whobegotyou will undoubtedly place, but the collect on the exotics with him involved will be minimal.
BroncoMatt
QCup Player
- Mar 4, 2008
- 959
- 0
Hard to go past Whobegotyou for mine. This has been his target for 12 months. Trianer knows how to win a Cox Plate, So does the jock and the horse is unbeaten at the track. He just ticks so many boxes and with the push for Heart of Dreams, you might see $3 - $3.50 for Whobe come race time, which is a great price.
The Danger for mine is Scenic Shot. I just think Scriven will give him a perfect run from barrier 6 and with a question mark over a few horses getting a tough 2040m, it would not surprise to see him charge home over his more fancied rivals late.
And you cant leave out "So You Think" He fits the right profile for 3yo to run a race in Cox Plate and a combination of Cummings & Boss is just too good to ignore in a big race
The Danger for mine is Scenic Shot. I just think Scriven will give him a perfect run from barrier 6 and with a question mark over a few horses getting a tough 2040m, it would not surprise to see him charge home over his more fancied rivals late.
And you cant leave out "So You Think" He fits the right profile for 3yo to run a race in Cox Plate and a combination of Cummings & Boss is just too good to ignore in a big race
Beachy
QCup Player
- Mar 6, 2008
- 652
- 0
I'm willing to take on Whobegotyou, especially now that Sir Slick has come out, so to my eye I can't see any speed in the race.
Heart of Dreams is the top pick for mine. Will get a cosy run from the good barrier, jockey will just have to get him clear at the right time. That being said, says alot about the quality of the field this year that he's most peoples 1st or 2nd pick in the race.
Rock Kingdom and Black Piranha are the best of the roughies. I'm riding Speed Gifted at 34s and So You Think at 26s, but am not confident about their chances. Hope to be proven wrong though icon_thumbs_u
Heart of Dreams is the top pick for mine. Will get a cosy run from the good barrier, jockey will just have to get him clear at the right time. That being said, says alot about the quality of the field this year that he's most peoples 1st or 2nd pick in the race.
Rock Kingdom and Black Piranha are the best of the roughies. I'm riding Speed Gifted at 34s and So You Think at 26s, but am not confident about their chances. Hope to be proven wrong though icon_thumbs_u
- Mar 26, 2008
- 7,994
- 6,941
Well done Beachy, enjoy the $52 [icon_razz1 , ( hope you had a bit on ). I will never come into a 4 year old at WFA again unless its a bloody champion, they just don't handle the big weight rise.
Bart is a freak, no doubt, maybe the rest of the field are just good horses or past their best but you can't ignore the time which was only about 4 lengths behind Might and Powers course record.
Great win by the Cat as well, how good is the shot from the air that ch 9 have, I would love to get my replays from that angle all the time.
Anybody else in a spring carnival tipping comp?
I am in one where you get 10 points for winning then 6, 4 , 2 and 1. It goes for 5 weeks and includes all the group races, next week is the last week and I need a big finish to get into the top 15 to snag some cash.
I might ask for some tips from you guys next week and try to pick your brains.
Bart is a freak, no doubt, maybe the rest of the field are just good horses or past their best but you can't ignore the time which was only about 4 lengths behind Might and Powers course record.
Great win by the Cat as well, how good is the shot from the air that ch 9 have, I would love to get my replays from that angle all the time.
Anybody else in a spring carnival tipping comp?
I am in one where you get 10 points for winning then 6, 4 , 2 and 1. It goes for 5 weeks and includes all the group races, next week is the last week and I need a big finish to get into the top 15 to snag some cash.
I might ask for some tips from you guys next week and try to pick your brains.
- Mar 26, 2008
- 7,994
- 6,941
Well have a great time, the crowds are berserk, you will enjoy Oaks day, take some really dark sunnies if there is a Mrs Jeba.
Its really easy to have a bad day this time of the year, most races have at least 6 or so genuine chances then there is always the smokies, especially on cups day.
Are you going to the calling of the card?
Its really easy to have a bad day this time of the year, most races have at least 6 or so genuine chances then there is always the smokies, especially on cups day.
Are you going to the calling of the card?
- Mar 5, 2008
- 30,392
- 19,413
Efficient and Kirklees out of the Cup.
Shamoline Warrior scratched from the Derby.
Shamoline Warrior scratched from the Derby.
