The way I see it, we're travelling about 4-5th, after the Storm, Roosters and Panthers, with a questionmark on the Sharks.
So Round 14 (Saturday 8th June) against the Sharks should be the reckoner, but unfortunately it's 3 days after the first Origin.
I'm not as convinced as others we fall apart without Reynolds, and not as badly as the Storm, Roosters and Panthers without their halves. However, Walsh, Carrigan and Mam are another matter, and we're likely to be missing at least one of them (plus Haas and possibly Staggs). The Sharks might be missing Nicho. Hard to judge under those circumstances.