The last match

[vertigo]

AWAY - Titans - WIN
HOME - Roosters - LOSS
HOME - Dragons - WIN
AWAY - Cowboys - WIN
HOME - Eels - LOSS
AWAY - Knights - LOSS
AWAY - Warriors - LOSS
HOME - Raiders

 

[simmo77]

Re: The last 8 matches

AWAY - Titans
HOME - Roosters
HOME - Dragons
AWAY - Cowboys
HOME - Eels
AWAY - Knights
AWAY - Warriors
HOME - Raiders

How many games can we lose and still make the 8?

Or how many will we win to make the 4? icon_thumbs_u

 

[Browny]

Re: The last 8 matches

Roosters, Cowboys and Raiders Im prepared to lock in.

Warriors, Knights and Eels we SHOULD win

Titans and Dragons we COULD win

 

[Coxy]

Re: The last 8 matches

I'd switch Titans and Warriors. Warriors are looking good this year, especially at home. Titans are vulnerable.

 

[lynx000]

Re: The last 8 matches

We really should win one of the next three and three of the last 5 and that will see us in the 8, probably around 5-7. If we win two out of the first three and four out of the last 5 we may crack top 4.

 

[user_nat]

Re: The last 8 matches

I don't think we will, but really we can win all of those. Only the first 3 are in the top 8.

 

[Major JW Hochstetter]

Re: The last 8 matches

What looks like the likely cutoff for the 8 this year? 28 points on F/A and maybe 30 to be secure perhaps? That's 4-5 wins out of 8. I'd be extremely disappointed if we couldn't secure a spot from here. We should definitely have our sights set on the Top 4. And if we build any kind of momentum into the finals, that's where we'll probably finish anyway.

 

[Bucking Beads]

Re: The last 8 matches

If we are at our best we should win all 8 remaining games on our way to a 7th Premiership. Warriors game will be tough and the cowboys could give us a scare if they find some form. I just hope we win all our home games.

 

[dukey]

Re: The last 8 matches

I think that if we can make the finals - preferably the 4 - the title could well be ours. With the Dragon's track record in finals games, and no Storm there to upset us, I don't see any teams that really scare me.

 

[Porthoz]

Re: The last 8 matches

With the amount of "teeangers" we have running around, I'm a bit weary of over confidence creeping into our ranks, especially if we win 8 on the trot.
Hopefully the likes of Henjak, Lockyer and other senior players can keep it under control.

In all honesty, I see the Cows and Knights (traditionally) as the danger games in our run towards a final 4 spot, because I'm sure everyone will fire up against the Titans and Dragons.
If we're on song and keep our defensive record of late, I can't see anyone capable of putting more points on us than we put on them.

 

[Andyman]

Re: The last 8 matches

Can't wait for the dragons match - it will be a really good barometer for our premiership chances.

Actually I was thinking a broncos/dragons gf would be good - The team that has never lost a grand final versus the coach that has never lost a grand final. Classic.

 

[lynx000]

Re: The last 8 matches

WB has lost several grand finals, he lost the 1987 final as coach of Canberra and he lost several GF's whilst coaching in Brisbane. He was unbeaten as Broncos coach.

 

[vertigo]

Re: The last 8 matches

Or how many will we win to make the 4? icon_thumbs_u

Haha yeah, not trying to be negative, I just think you don't want to burn out winning a heap in a row before finals à la Dragons last year. Ideally you want to be hitting form and winning 2-3 games into the finals to go all the way.

 

[Kimlo]

Re: The last 8 matches

If Hodges is back for the Dragons game I reckon we can win that and if attitude is right we will have no problem winning the other 7.

We CAN win all 8 games but we won't. We will lose one or two of them even when we shouldn't but we will comfortably make the top 8.

With Melbourne out of the comp who would actually be in third place now if they could accrue points, the competition is essentially a top 5 and a top 9, not a top 4/8.

Cut off in previous years has been anywhere from 24-30 points, however with Melbourne beating other teams while not accruing points and St George run away minor premiers 2-10 is really open up until the last 2-3 games.
26 should easily get us in the 8, 30-32 should get us top 4 however with the competition as close as it is it will almost certainly come down to point differential, that is what will separate the top 4 contenders and more so the fringe top 8 teams all on similar points.

We are currently equal 4th on differential the more we push that up the more likely it is we finish in a higher spot come round 26 when no doubts some teams will be in a grid lock for points with only P/D separating.

 

[jarro65]

Re: The last 8 matches

28 points is considered a safe amount to get into the 8.

 

[Kimlo]

Re: The last 8 matches

With Melbourne scenario it's actually a top 9 now because if they were accruing points the team at 8 would actually be at 9(because technically Melbourne are 3rd now).

So 28 is a virtually a certainty to make the finals as it is basically a "top 9". Since 06 9th spot has never exceed 28 points and in 07 28 points was 5th on ladder.

With teams 4-9 all technically being pushed up a spot to 3-8(so long as Melbourne keep winning most of their games this will remain true) this is an idea of how it might go.

This is how many points would have made top 4/8 in previous years with the whole Melbourne scenario above.

2006 - 9th position = 26 | top 4 = 32 (teams 3-6 only p/d separating)
2007 - 9th position = 24 | top 4 = 28(29 points actual top 4)
2008 - 9th position = 28 | top 4 = 33(34 "")
2009 - 9th position = 28 | top 4 = 32(33 "")
2010 - 9th position = ??? | top 4 = ???

32 is a safe bet for top 4 so to make top 4 we would need to win 6 out of our last 8 games and the P/D will take care of itself.

Thought some people would like to see this stuff, for the statistic/history lovers :P

 

[rnabokov]

Re: The last 8 matches

In my view the Dragoons are quite beatable because, like last year, they are largely predictable, only they're executing so much better this year. The Broncos on the other hand having enough potential variety in attack and game-breakers that there is no reason - luck and injuries aside, why we can't at least get to the GF.

The only sides I see as a definite worry are the Warriors, purely because it's an away game, and, the Broncos, if they lose consistency.

 

[simmo77]

Re: The last 8 matches

Very interested in tonights game with the return of Gasnier. He could make a huge difference to that Dragons side in attack, especially if Boyd continues his hot run of form and they start to combine. Dragons might just do it.