The last match

[Huge]

Re: The last 8 matches

I did'nt see anyone mention Penrith who must, imo, be considered. We should make the eight with the run home, If Hodges returns and comes good it should cancel out any great advantage Saints gain with Gasnier. I've backed a few teams to win the GF, especially the long odds chances who may sneak into the eight. When the markets released,(final eight prices to win the gf) with luck I should be able to back the others and have a guaranteed win win situation.

 

[tkday]

Re: The last 8 matches

With Melbourne scenario it's actually a top 9 now because if they were accruing points the team at 8 would actually be at 9(because technically Melbourne are 3rd now).

So 28 is a virtually a certainty to make the finals as it is basically a "top 9". Since 06 9th spot has never exceed 28 points and in 07 28 points was 5th on ladder.

With teams 4-9 all technically being pushed up a spot to 3-8(so long as Melbourne keep winning most of their games this will remain true) this is an idea of how it might go.

This is how many points would have made top 4/8 in previous years with the whole Melbourne scenario above.

2006 - 9th position = 26 | top 4 = 32 (teams 3-6 only p/d separating)
2007 - 9th position = 24 | top 4 = 28(29 points actual top 4)
2008 - 9th position = 28 | top 4 = 33(34 "")
2009 - 9th position = 28 | top 4 = 32(33 "")
2010 - 9th position = ??? | top 4 = ???

32 is a safe bet for top 4 so to make top 4 we would need to win 6 out of our last 8 games and the P/D will take care of itself.

Thought some people would like to see this stuff, for the statistic/history lovers :P

Good stuff broncospwn! Thanks. Also, I see Panthers as more of a worry than Titans.

 

[Kimlo]

Re: The last 8 matches

Good stuff broncospwn! Thanks. Also, I see Panthers as more of a worry than Titans.

No worries. I also think Panthers are a lot more worrying. The Titans don't really scare me, they're a good team but you just know if we are on our game they won't be able to win. The Panthers though, if they are on their game they are incredibly hard to beat because they have strike power all over the park.

If we can get Hodges back soon then I will be confident we have the strike power to match any other team, without him though we are just lacking at left centre. Glenn/Gillett are doing a fine job but they are not the type of centre I want in a finals game.

 

[tkday]

Re: The last 8 matches

I really do miss Hodges, this year hasn't been the same.

 

[Huge]

Re: The last 8 matches

yea..thanks broncospwn....the stats make interesting reading. Helps with the punting

 

[Black Philip]

Re: The last 8 matches

IMO

AWAY - Titans - Win
HOME - Roosters - Win
HOME - Dragons - Loss
AWAY - Cowboys - Win
HOME - Eels - Win
AWAY - Knights - Win
AWAY - Warriors - Loss
HOME - Raiders - Win

That's me trying to be optimistic. The Cowboys and Titans will be close too IMO.

 

[Porthoz]

Re: The last 8 matches

AWAY - Titans - Win (Close, but with a week's rest and all the troops available bar Hodgo, doable)
HOME - Roosters - Win (Easy, and a good opportunity to put some distance to a top 8 contender)
HOME - Dragons - Win (Close, and will be a true measure of where we stand in this comp)
AWAY - Cowboys - Win (Easy, unless the Cows suddenly start playing to their potential)
HOME - Eels - Win (Easy, Eels should be preparing for mad Monday by then)
AWAY - Knights - Loss (Close, one of the toughest grounds for us to play at)
AWAY - Warriors - Win (Close as the Warriors will probably still be contending for a finals spot, but hopefully the weather will be better by then)
HOME - Raiders - Win (Easy, they also will be well on their way to mad Monday)

Obviously an optimistic view also, but realistic enough if we play to our potential and have no major injuries.
Would see us climb to the top 4 and a home final.

After watching tonight's game between 1st and 2nd in the ladder, I feel even more confident about the chances of a full strenght Broncos team. The Panthers will be the team to beat in the finals, and the Dragons will have their usual choke... :twisted:

P.S. If we don't win the premiership, I wouldn't mind for Petero to lift the trophee.

 

[vertigo]

Re: The last 7 matches

http://www.nrl.com/telstrapremiership/l ... fault.aspx

NRL.com ladder predictor is working again, just fill in the scores of games that haven't already finished in the current round.

Winning just 4 of the last 7 games on 30 points with a healthy F/A is the least we should expect.

 

[Porthoz]

Re: The last 7 matches

http://www.nrl.com/telstrapremiership/ladderpredictor/tabid/10868/default.aspx

NRL.com ladder predictor is working again, just fill in the scores of games that haven't already finished in the current round.

Winning just 4 of the last 7 games on 30 points with a healthy F/A is the least we should expect.

Be wary of the F/A count, it resets it to the round 19 everytime you go a round forward!!!
Even if you put the Broncos winning all their games by 50 until the end of the regular season, their F/A compared to now will not be increased by 350, but 50 only. Same goes for the defense... :roll:

 

[Crazy Sam]

Re: The last 7 matches

Using the predictor I end up with a table of Dragons (42), Panthers (36), Tigers (34), Roosters (34), Broncos (32), Manly, Titans, Warriors (all 30) with Souths, Eels and Raiders all on 26 points.

I also ended up with a Broncos-Panthers grand final :P

 

[Porthoz]

Re: The last 7 matches

Using my spreadsheet, my prediction:
1- Dragons 42
2- Broncos 34
3- Panthers 32
4- Warriors 32
5- Titans 32
6- Sea Eagles 30
7- Tigers 30
8- Rabbitohs 28

 

[jarro65]

Re: The last 4 matches

Anybody else notice that our last 4 matches are all going to be friday nights ?

Is that a good thing for us ? Do we perform well on FNF ??

 

[tkday]

Re: The last 4 matches

Our match against roosters still stings, how wrong you were audragon :) I wouldn't have a clue on the stats for FNF for us. This year has proven stats don't mean anything.

 

[Nashy]

Re: The last 4 matches

All I know is that FNF is the best football of the weekend.

Agenda: I hate MNF.

 

[tkday]

Re: The last 4 matches

Same, only because I don't have foxtel/austar :)

 

[Nashy]

Re: The last 4 matches

Oh.. we have Foxtel in 3 rooms. And I still hate MNF.

 

[tkday]

Re: The last 4 matches

There's also something about finishing a work week and then getting to enjoy the footy that night knowing you've got a weekend coming.

 

[user_nat]

Re: The last 4 matches

Anybody else notice that our last 4 matches are all going to be friday nights ?

Is that a good thing for us ? Do we perform well on FNF ??

So far this year we have played 10 games on a Friday night (5 home, 5 away).

Of those we have won 4 (2 against the Cowboys and 2 against the Titans).

Also..

We have lost both our Monday games (1 home, 1 away)
We have won both our Saturday games (both away)
We have won 5/6 of our Sunday games (3/4 home, 2/2 away)

I think that reflects pretty poorly on our Friday games, 2 wins at home all year.