Finals Scenario

[Anonymous person]

to be honest, if we make the finals and play the sharks in week 1, i think it could be one hell of a bet.

 

[Jeba]

I took the 40-1 as well. Didn't invest as much obviously but considering what we are capable of its a good price.

 

[Huge]

Backing a team which is in the finals (hard to see us miss now ) at 40/1 is good value alright. It does not mean you believe they are a realistic chance of winning though. The way I see it, you have only 8 runners in the race but do not have to beat them all,just whomever you line up against. So, you've already backed the Broncs for say 100 bucks, you then have a hundred or two on their opponents( to win ...just THAT game)...bound to get even money at least and maybe even better....if you lose(and you hope you do ) your $ 4000 result is still alive......if you win you get your original stake on the Broncs back plus whatever is left over... onto the next game..same again....you might spend a grand but cannot fail to make money....using the long odds to guarantee a result

I did just that a couple of years ago when I backed Canberra at 66/1 had $50 them .....they squeaked in to the semis on the back of a lot of home games.....money for old rope

 

[noisetheory]

i guess its worked out on the theory that the broncos will ~probably~ be around 2.50 odds for each game from here on in? personally if we win week 1 of the finals i think we'll be much shorter in subsequent weeks.. maybe. but..

2.50 x 2.50 x 2.50 x 2.50 = 39.06

hell if we make the grand final and we're 2.50 i'll be having a punt on that!

i might have 50 on us now.

 

[Coxy]

Most importantly, it's about the favourites odds going forward if you want to use CF's method of ensuring a break even minimum.

ie, you'd assume the opposition for the Broncos would be favourite each week, but how much? If it's around the $1.70 mark, then you can place increasing bets each week the Broncos win to ensure you cover the outlay.

I'm no betting genius (haven't placed a bet in years), simple maths.

 

[Bull Shark]

i guess its worked out on the theory that the broncos will ~probably~ be around 2.50 odds for each game from here on in? personally if we win week 1 of the finals i think we'll be much shorter in subsequent weeks.. maybe. but..

2.50 x 2.50 x 2.50 x 2.50 = 39.06

hell if we make the grand final and we're 2.50 i'll be having a punt on that!

i might have 50 on us now.

It's not as black and white as that .. sports betting and rugby league betting in particular, is far more 'situational' ..

the books have taken a very clear position with that quote on the broncos that they just don't rate them any chance at all from here ... They're practically begging for broncos money with that price and they know a lot of 'squares' (ie 99.5% of the betting public) will think that $41 is their xmas come early.

Of course circumstances and fortunes can change like the wind in RL and if the broncos were to flip the switch and knock someone off in week one of the finals, and a couple of the top rated teams picked up a key injury, those odds for brisbane would be wound in pretty quickly.

 

[broncos4life]

If we make the finals I really hope we play the cowgirls week 1 and smash them. Would love to see the Look on JTs face after his 'broncos are easybeats' comments

 

[Coxy]

If we make the finals I really hope we play the cowgirls week 1 and smash them. Would love to see the Look on JTs face after his 'broncos are easybeats' comments

Link? Quote?

 

[Bucking Beads]

Cowboys will thrash us IMO.

 

[Bull Shark]

Link? Quote?

He didn't say that at all ... Thurston was discussing finals opponents on NRL on Fox last night and right after mentioning how dangerous a couple of teams were he said how he'd love to play the broncos because of the interest and the crowd ect it would draw up inTownsville.

 

[Dexter]

Backing a team which is in the finals (hard to see us miss now ) at 40/1 is good value alright. It does not mean you believe they are a realistic chance of winning though. The way I see it, you have only 8 runners in the race but do not have to beat them all,just whomever you line up against. So, you've already backed the Broncs for say 100 bucks, you then have a hundred or two on their opponents( to win ...just THAT game)...bound to get even money at least and maybe even better....if you lose(and you hope you do ) your $ 4000 result is still alive......if you win you get your original stake on the Broncs back plus whatever is left over... onto the next game..same again....you might spend a grand but cannot fail to make money....using the long odds to guarantee a result

I did just that a couple of years ago when I backed Canberra at 66/1 had $50 them .....they squeaked in to the semis on the back of a lot of home games.....money for old rope

It's not quite that straight forward kiddies, the odds obviously can vary and also the chance of a draw can knock you out because most betting is to 80 mins with a draw being a separate result.

So if I back the Broncs @ $41 and have $100 on them I am collecting $4100 but I back each opposing team to the Broncs. As a guide using $1.80 ( any worse and it gets ugly quickly) as our odds our bets would look like this.

Week 1 $ 200 @ $1.80 Total Outlay to date = $300 if we lose at this point you win $60 if we win you keep going

Week 2 $450 @ $1.80 Total Outlay to date = $750 if we lose at this point you win $60

Week 3 $1000 @ $1.80 Total Outlay to date = $1750 if we lose at this point you win $50

Week 4 $ 2200 @ $1.80 Total Outlay to date = $ 3950

Total collect if Broncos lose the GF = $10

Total collect if Broncos win the GF = $ 150

 

[Coxy]

Yeah, whole lot of outlay for not much return. Not much point really.

 

[Huge]

The forty to one is the point....sure it is hardly worth it at 40 to 1...when I did it last I got 66 to 1 and that made it easy to win win and for better value. I totally agree that punting is no way to make a living !!!!

the bookies probably consider brisbane 500 to 1 but odds like that are never going to happen !!!

I got on Canberra a few years back when they were a long way from qualifying, still some 6 weeks out. At the time I also got on the Warriors at around 40 to 1 and they both were a reasonable bet at that point in time.

I made money on those bets through laying off on others when the final 8 were known...in fact I'm certain I posted something to that effect at the time..

as Dad said.......the only way to clean up on the horses is to follow them with a shovel.Advice I never forgot. Punting is okay but only when it's fun and affordable...

 

[noisetheory]

they arent 40-1 anywhere i've checked, and its not uncommon for the twitter account of these books to exaggerate things (although sure they may have reduced the price after that bet was taken - it was odds of 34 when i checked, right after they posted it).

most other corporates seem to have us around 26's.

 

[Huge]

40 to 1 must have been offered somewhere because Jeba wrote he got on at those odds......and I'm pretty sure he wouldn't make stuff up

 

[Ari Gold]

NSW Tab had us at 41 for a bit. We've been matched in the 50s on Betfair.

 

[QUEENSLANDER]

It's not quite that straight forward kiddies, the odds obviously can vary and also the chance of a draw can knock you out because most betting is to 80 mins with a draw being a separate result.

So if I back the Broncs @ $41 and have $100 on them I am collecting $4100 but I back each opposing team to the Broncs. As a guide using $1.80 ( any worse and it gets ugly quickly) as our odds our bets would look like this.

Week 1 $ 200 @ $1.80 Total Outlay to date = $300 if we lose at this point you win $60 if we win you keep going

Week 2 $450 @ $1.80 Total Outlay to date = $750 if we lose at this point you win $60

Week 3 $1000 @ $1.80 Total Outlay to date = $1750 if we lose at this point you win $50

Week 4 $ 2200 @ $1.80 Total Outlay to date = $ 3950

Total collect if Broncos lose the GF = $10

Total collect if Broncos win the GF = $ 150

most betting is actually just head to head and that includes golden point

 

[noisetheory]

most betting is actually just head to head and that includes golden point

yeah draw is only included in margin betting (1-12/13+).