PRE-GAME Round 25 - Broncos vs Sea Eagles

[winslow_wong]

If we can get a good win over Manly, we go into the finals with a massive chance IMO.
As long as we don't have to play Melbourne at any time thru the finals I believe we can go all the way.
Momentum is all we need to win it this year, there is no current stand out team, and some names are missing/some teams are shaking that were the more stand out teams.
Us along with the Warriors can really shake it up in this years finals series, lets just hope the boys don't get too carried away, and too confident.

This is made for Wayne.

Yeah we're the best god damn team in the comp. we can beat anyone.

just don't make us play the storm.

 

[Foordy]

if we do beat Manly and still do not make the four (Still mathematically possible) it means if we win the GF we will have had to have won seven games straight. While it is also fairly doable if we avoid any further injuries and Bird comes good and shores up that left edge it is still a huge ask of a team that has been inconsistent all season.

One lives in hope, it would make it all the sweeter if we do win the big dance despite the amount of adversity we have had to overcome this year. The Manly game is a perfect opportunity to test Bird out, allow him a run and see how he goes Benny knows 'testing' him in a do or die semi-final is just too risky.

I'm half expecting him not to play though and Benny is just trying to offer the media some scraps to chatter on about in the hope it takes the pressure and spotlight away from 'Dick' Turpin.

They did a new ladder on fox sports for the top 8 teams (based on their record against the other top 8 teams) ...

on that ladder we are actually coming first with 8 wins from 12 games against other top 8 teams. Storm were 2nd with 6 wins (from 10 games)

 

[Super Freak]

If we finish 6th or lower then we will be on Storms side of the draw. We will have to play them in the prelim if we make it and they win their first week.

However, if we finish 5th then we could avoid them completely unless they lose their first finals game which would be against the Sharks or they make the GF.

IMO, if we want to win the premiership then we will need to beat the Storm at some stage.

 

[Jedhead]

They did a new ladder on fox sports for the top 8 teams (based on their record against the other top 8 teams) ...

on that ladder we are actually coming first with 8 wins from 12 games against other top 8 teams. Storm were 2nd with 6 wins (from 10 games)

Interesting. were they classing the Dragons and Panthers as top 8 teams? As at present I don't.

 

[Foordy]

Interesting. were they classing the Dragons and Panthers as top 8 teams? As at present I don't.

yep

https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nr...t/news-story/4441cbb7227f4a6ad6db83686f1332ba

 

[Morkel]

yep

View attachment 3714

https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nr...t/news-story/4441cbb7227f4a6ad6db83686f1332ba

Nice maths Fox Sports. 3 wins & 3 losses = 8 games for the Panthers? Looked at their results and they haven't had any draws.

 

[Foordy]

Nice maths Fox Sports. 3 wins & 3 losses = 8 games for the Panthers? Looked at their results and they haven't had any draws.

just further proof that journos often add 1 and 1 and come up with 11

 

[Morkel]

Panthers 8 games, won 3, lost 5.

 

[BroncsFan]

if we do beat Manly and still do not make the four (Still mathematically possible) it means if we win the GF we will have had to have won seven games straight.

I dislike this argument regarding coming into a finals series on a win streak and having to then extend that streak.

I think any team thinking about winning a GF as a 7, 10, 13, etc. game win streak is probably not in a mental state to do it anyway, as they would be getting too far ahead of themselves leading to complacency or increased stress

Yes those streaks are hard to come by but finals games are largely sudden death and all that matters is you win your next game.

The premiers aren't the best team through the year it's who can put the best month of footy together at the end. Finals are a whole new competition regardless of what anyone says and you want to be coming into it in winning form as opposed to needing a loss to break the streak.

It would be interesting to see what kind win streaks the last few premiers were on when they won the GF. Melbourne were dominant last year so I suspect they could have had a fair run going.

 

[BroncsFan]

If we finish 6th or lower then we will be on Storms side of the draw. We will have to play them in the prelim if we make it and they win their first week.

However, if we finish 5th then we could avoid them completely unless they lose their first finals game which would be against the Sharks or they make the GF.

IMO, if we want to win the premiership then we will need to beat the Storm at some stage.

Or if we finish 8th

We may actually be better finishing 8th pending other results as it is almost certain we avoid Warriors and probably line up against Dragons at ANZ, whilst avoiding Melbourne in the prelims

Second week would be sharks at ANZ/SFS, which would be another good match up, followed by Rabbits/Roosters at ANZ/SFS in a prelim.

 

[Battler]

I'm backing the Sharks to beat the Storm in week one. The Storm have looked pretty average of late, and the Sharks love to play them, but they will 100% have the refs on their side in Melbourne and be allowed to do whatever they want in the ruck.

EDIT: We just have to keep winning and not worry about opponents. Ideally though the Dragons would be our first matchup at Suncorp.

 

[BroncsFan]

yep

View attachment 3714

https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nr...t/news-story/4441cbb7227f4a6ad6db83686f1332ba

Also interesting that Broncos and Warriors have played the most games against the top 8.

Further evidence of non Sydney teams having to carry the load whilst Sydney darlings can cruise their way through on easier draws.

 

[Morkel]

Also interesting that Broncos and Warriors have played the most games against the top 8.

Further evidence of non Sydney teams having to carry the load whilst Sydney darlings can cruise their way through on easier draws.

While I don't disagree with the sentiment, remember there were teams like the Eels and Cowboys who were heavily favoured to be contenders at the time the draw was released. It may seem like it was an easy draw now, but it wasn't necessarily going to be the case.

 

[Morkel]

yep

View attachment 3714

https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nr...t/news-story/4441cbb7227f4a6ad6db83686f1332ba

Top pointscorers too. 3rd worst defence though.

 

[Foordy]

Also interesting that Broncos and Warriors have played the most games against the top 8.

Further evidence of non Sydney teams having to carry the load whilst Sydney darlings can cruise their way through on easier draws.

whether we play a team once or twice isn't some random decision made by the idiots at the NRL, it is based on the way the ladder finished the previous season. IIRC, the split the previous years ladder into two pools (always gets split the same way). then you play everyone in your pool once and everyone in the other pool twice ... one of the few things that isn't at conspiracy or **** up at league central

 

[BroncsFan]

While I don't disagree with the sentiment, remember there were teams like the Eels and Cowboys who were heavily favoured to be contenders at the time the draw was released. It may seem like it was an easy draw now, but it wasn't necessarily going to be the case.

Yeah I know I just get extremely frustrated at the level of manipulation allowed in this game.

As far as I can tell the draw has ZERO criteria when it is created hence every year without fail we have to play storm twice, cows twice, usually roosters, rabbits, etc. twice. Primarily due to the TV ratings they get.

Whilst on the other hand we typically play weaker teams such as knights, tigers, etc. on average once a year unless they are going well at which point they will rate better on TV and they move up into our twice per year schedule.

If the draw was fair we would at least once every 3 years only be playing storm and cows once, and 2 of every 3 years playing knights/ tigers twice.

Apologies for the rant but it just pisses me off immensely that we're basically handicapped every year because we rate the best on tv.

 

[Foordy]

Yeah I know I just get extremely frustrated at the level of manipulation allowed in this game.

As far as I can tell the draw has ZERO criteria when it is created hence every year without fail we have to play storm twice, cows twice, usually roosters, rabbits, etc. twice. Primarily due to the TV ratings they get.

Whilst on the other hand we typically play weaker teams such as knights, tigers, etc. on average once a year unless they are going well at which point they will rate better on TV and they move up into our twice per year schedule.

If the draw was fair we would at least once every 3 years only be playing storm and cows once, and 2 of every 3 years playing knights/ tigers twice.

Apologies for the rant but it just pisses me off immensely that we're basically handicapped every year because we rate the best on tv.

see my post above ... the who we place twice isn't a random decision ... it is based of the previous seasons ladder

 

[BroncsFan]

whether we play a team once or twice isn't some random decision made by the idiots at the NRL, it is based on the way the ladder finished the previous season. IIRC, the split the previous years ladder into two pools (always gets split the same way). then you play everyone in your pool once and everyone in the other pool twice ... one of the few things that isn't at conspiracy or **** up at league central

I remember the explanation you're referring to in an article and I believe there was also a "loophole" where certain games were channeled in every year (ANZAC games, the double header) and there were also some provisions that X amount of games for each team were scheduled every year to maximise rivalries or something.

I can't recall the last year where we've only played storm or cows once in the year or is it coincidence that we fall with them every year.

To me the schedule is:
24 games
15 teams at least once
Leaves 9 other games per year split evenly across the 15 teams or 3 times per 5 years

With that kind of criteria you could list out the draw in 5 year cycles.