Ladder within reaching distance of us:
5th - Sharks 29 points, +20 PD. Games against: Storm, Cowboys
6th - Cowboys 28 points, +120 PD. Games against Dragons, Knights, Sharks.
7th - Broncos 26 points, +37 PD. Games against Sea Eagles, Panthers
8th - Tigers 26 points, -1 PD. Games against Roosters, Storm
9th - Raiders 26 points, -39 PD. Games against Bulldogs, Warriors
10th - Titans 24 points, -6 PD. Games against Panthers, Sea Eagles
11th - Knights 24 points, -20 PD. Games against Cowboys, Rabbitohs
12th - Dragons 22 points, -76 PD. Games against Cowboys, Warriors, Eels
Scenario 1. We win both games.
Broncos finish season on 30 points and a points differential of at least +39. Highest possible finish of 5th.
To not make the finals:
Tigers need to win both remaining games and make up the 38 point difference between us.
Raiders need to win both remaining games and make up the 76 point difference between us.
Sharks and Cowboys need to win one of their remaining games.
Scenario 2. We win one game and lose the other.
Broncos finish season on 28 points. Highest possible finish of 7th.
To not make the finals any 2 of the following must occur:
Tigers win both games OR Tigers win 1 game and pass our PD.
Raiders win both games OR Raiders win 1 game and pass our PD.
Titans win both remaining games and pass our PD.
Knights win both remaining games and pass our PD.
Dragons win all 3 remaming games and pass our PD.
Scenario 3. We lose both games.
Broncos remain on 26 points and have a PD of at most +35. Highest possible finish is still 7th.
To make the finals all but 1 of the following must happen:
Tigers lose both remaining games and don't pass our PD.
Raiders lose both remaining games and don't pass our PD.
Titans lose at least 1 of their games and don't pass our PD.
Knights lose at least 1 of their games and don't pass our PD.
Dragons lose at least 1 of their (3) games and don't pass our PD.
If just one of those occurs we finish 8th.
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I think that's all right, not going to take draws into account.