Spring Racing

[Jeba]

Final field for Caulfield Cup (no barrier draw yet).

$2.5 million Group 1 BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m)

# Horse (Trainer) Weight Jockey
1 VIEWED (Bart Cummings) 57.0 Brad Rawiller
2 KIRKLEES (IRE) (Saeed bin Suroor) 56.0 Kerrin McEvoy
3 C'EST LA GUERRE (NZ) (John Sadler) 55.5 Steven Arnold
4 CIMA DE TRIOMPHE (IRE) (Luca Cumani) 55.5 Damien Oliver
5 FIUMICINO (NZ) (Team Hawkes) 55.5 Dwayne Dunn
6 MASTER O'REILLY (NZ) (Danny O'Brien) 55.0 Vlad Duric
7 ROMAN EMPEROR (NZ) (Bart Cummings) 54.0 Hugh Bowman
8 SARRERA (Michael Moroney) 54.0 Nicholas Hall
9 PREDATORY PRICER (Paul Murray) 53.5 Steven King
10 RED RULER (NZ) (John Sargent) 53.5 Danny Nikolic
11 ZAVITE (NZ) (Anthony Cummings) 53.0 Mark Zahra
12 HARRIS TWEED (NZ) (Murray and Bjorn Baker) 52.5 Craig Newitt
13 LIGHT VISION (NZ) (Robert Smerdon) 52.5 Luke Nolen
14 DAFFODIL (NZ) (Kevin Gray) 51.5 Chris Munce
15 READY TO LIFT (Gerald Ryan) 51.5 Glen Boss
16 RED LORD (Anthony Cummings) 51.5 Glyn Schofield
17 VIGOR (NZ) (Danny O'Brien) 51.0 Corey Brown
18 ALLEZ WONDER (Bart Cummings) 50.0 Michelle Payne
Emergencies
19 BAUGHURST (Bill and Symon Wilde) 52.5
20 SHOCKING (Mark Kavanagh) 51.0
21 NEWPORT (Paul Perry) 52.5 Peter Wells
22 MISS DARCEY (Anthony Cummings) 50.0

 

[Jeba]

Some early thoughts:

-Viewed is going just as good if not better than anything in the race and will be hard to beat
-C'est La Guerre comes right into this if the rain in Melbourne keeps up. Huge chance
-Daffodil's last run should be forgotten. She'll be right for this

Those are my early thoughts before the barrier draw. I'll throw up a preview this week.

 

[The Brizz]

Vigor and Allez Wonder both look appealing with that little weight, at least for multiples.

 

[BroncoMatt]

It's a super tough race, but I'm warming towards Predatory Pricer. He has been racing against the "A Graders" and been there abouts every time. In fact a couple of times he was was probably stiff.

He'll race on the pace, raced well at the track and will get the distance. At $7 I think he is a great each way bet.

 

[Canga]

You heard it here first if the track is no worse than dead

KIRKLEES (IRE) (Saeed bin Suroor) 56.0 Kerrin McEvoy

From what I have heard and read he is a far better horse than Saeed horse who won it last year.

 

[m1c]

Master O for me. Well weighted here, will relish the extra 400 and to be honest I think he is going super. Just pipped for 3rd by a vastly improving Vision and Power behind the two middle distance performers of the spring in Whobe and Heart of Dreams. Should have finished a lot closer to both of them his run before that, never got out until the last 100m. They do have some trouble settling him, provided he draws a gate I'll be all over him.

Agree with Matt's sentiments on Predatory Pricer. For a bit of EW value I'm also a fan of Light Vision and Roman Emperor.

Just on Vision and Power, I think Joe Pride has been foxing a bit. His stable normally trains on and Vision and Power was reportedly a heffa when he resumed. The only multiple group 1 winner of the Autumn, expect him to run well his next few starts.

 

[Canga]

For the thousand guineas today I think the 2 sydney horses are a chance at the quinella. Melito ( I've back straight out on Sunday @ 16) and Sister Madly. If i go a Tri I'll add 4 and 8.

 

[Beachy]

Assuming that there's going to be some rain around during the week, I like Roman Emperor. Has drawn well

 

[Jeba]

Here's my preview. Yes I am bored [icon_lol1.

1. Viewed (15)
In fantastic form and will be right in this. Ran a bottler in this race last year leading into the Melbourne Cup. Question is will he be in the race to win it or just use it to tick over for the first Tuesday in November. Bart???

2. Kirklees (7)
Never seen him race in Australia so will not back him. I know All The Good won it last year without a lead-up run but I just can't depart with my hard-earned before seeing a horse run in Australian conditions. If he runs well here I could back him in the Melbourne Cup but not on Saturday. That's not so say there's no respect, the Godolphin team aren't to be messed with.

3. Cest La Guerre (13)
Will be loving the prospect of a rain affected track and getting towards the distances that suit him. Should be ridden back from the barrier and charging home. Big chance.

4. Cima De Triomphe (11)
See above with Kirklees. Likewise with Godolpin though, Luca Cumani knows this race and our conditions better than any other overseas trainer so he'd be my pick of the Internationals. No bet though.

5. Fiumicino (20)
No, it's a pity he's a gelding, if he was a stallion he'd probably retire.

6. Master O'Reilly (18)
From that barrier they'll probably ride him cold and because of that I can't back him. He's in good form, but he is always in good form, and hasn't won a race since this one 2 years ago.

7. Roman Emporer (5)
Can't write him off because of the rain and the Bart-factor. Has to go in all bets.

8. Sarrera (10)
Been racing with Daffodil in NZ and will not beat her in this so not for me.

9. Predatory Pricer (16)
In good form but I have questions over him running the trip. He did it in the Derby against his own age but not sure he's upto this level. In saying that though he's probably in too good form to leave out of exotics.

10. Red Ruler (14)
Had all the advantages in the Turnbull and never looked likely. No.

11. Zavite (8)
Will lead and make his own luck, but hard to see him holding on for a place.

12. Harris Tweed (2)
No.

13. Light Vision (19)
Handy stayer but not group 1 level IMO. Can win a race like the Saab on Derby Day, I'd rather back him in that.

14. Daffodil (4)
I'd forget her last run, she got no favours in the straight and was ridden poorly. She'll get a cosy run from that barrier and if they take her just worse than midfield she'd have to be a hope.

15. Ready To Lift (12)
B-grader not up to this company.

16. Red Lord (3)
Similar to Light Vision. Just out of his depth in this race.

17. Vigor (22)
His run in the Makybe Diva was fantastic but his runs since then have been poor, and couple that with the outside barrier - no hope.

18. Allez Wonder (6)
2000m, back to 1600m, and now back to 2400m, Bart works in mysterious ways. And that's why I can't write her off!!

19e. Baughurst (21)
See Red Lord and Light Vision. In good form but not upto this company.

20e. Shocking (17)
Has an appropriate name considering the hype around him at the start of the Spring. B-grader, and no.

21e. Newport (1)
He's an old marvel but tends to do a lot wrong in races and for that reason you couldn't back him in this.

22e. Miss Darcey (9)
Will find these a bit too tough for her if she gets a run.

I'll put Cest La Guerre on top if the rain continues in Melbourne. And I'll include these in the quaddie - Viewed, Roman Emporer, Predatory Pricer, Daffodil, Allez Wonder.

 

[Dave]

Not a vintage Caulfield Cup by any means but my 2 cents worth. I don't think it will be a bog track, Caulfield dries out really quickly so all horses should get their chance. I think there are only a few winning chances;

Daffodil - Donkey licked them in the Oaks last year and has trained on to be a top class mare. I would probably have preferred a wider barrier but Munce will give her a gun run and he has a good record on lightly weighted mares in big races

Predatory Pricer - Has turned the corner this Spring and has matured into a lovely horse. Probably the most consistent performer throughout the carnival and a massive chance I reckon. I actually think he has drawn perfectly as they can ride him a bit quieter to ensure he gets the 2400m. A few in this race beat him in the AJC Derby during the Autumn but I am sure he has their measure now. If he wins or runs a place Saturday I reckon he can win the Cox Plate as well

Viewed - Trained by the Master and looks to be going enormous at the moment. Can't get his Brisbane Cup win over 2400m out of my mind when I am looking at this race. He will get back but don't be surprised if he swamps them late.

If I had to throw a couple more in I would include Light Vision (best roughie) and Cest La Guerre (looks a non winner to me though)


Whatever you back though - make sure you save some money to back Secret Flyer at Caulfield on Saturday - this is a special horse!

 

[The Brizz]

My pick Vigor drew horridly so I won't be backing it, I like Roman Emporer or Cima De Trimophe (massive fan of Luca Cumani).

 

[MIKEY]

Ok, no laughing at me but im putting $25 each way on red lord in the caulfield cup , i reckon it will go ok [icon_shru

 

[MIKEY]

oh and this one should win on its ear( maybe) Neroli #4 race 6 caufield .......... icon_thumbs_u

 

[BroncoMatt]

If I had to throw a couple more in I would include Light Vision (best roughie) and Cest La Guerre (looks a non winner to me though)

!

I was starting to think this myself but I think he might be a real geniune stayer. I heard Lloyd Williams saying, it's started in races of distances 2400m or further twice in its career for 1 Win (Brained them in the NZ Derby) & a 3rd (an unlucky 3rd in last years Cup)

 

[m1c]

He got smashed in last years cup at the top of the straight, was a fantastic run under the circumstances. Honestly on a slow or heavy track he wins by 10L this year. The dry brings him back to the field a little.

Just on Neroli, I'm her biggest fan too Mikey, hoping Tracey and Hot Danish cut each other up in front.

 

[Jeba]

Has Nikolic still got the ride on Hot Danish? If so she won't win as he will find some way to slaughter her again.

 

[Dexter]

Hot Danish will win IMO. Nickolic was under instruction to go back and that was announced prior to the first race, clearly a bad tactic. Typhoon Tracey will lead and they won't let her get too far away, Neroli should posi up on her inside just behind the speed and Hot danish will be off and gone before Neroli gets clear. Anything worse than dead then Neroli has a better head to head record over HD.

Caulfield cup, for mine I lean to Roman Emperor, should get a nice run from a good barrier, both wins on dead tracks, won at 2400 at its 5th run in same as this Sat, Bart has saved the blinkers for this Sat. and Hugh Bowman has stuck with the horse.

Not sure about Viewed as to which race he is being aimed at, he will have to come around the field or be ridden for luck with a shortish straight and I'm pretty sure they won't want a penalty for the MC where he has 57kg already.

 

[Jeba]

Well there ya go. I hope everyone now realises that backing overseas horses based on hype is a sure fire way to lose on the punt. They said the 2 gallopers this year were unstoppable, just like Septimus in the Cup last year. Why you would throw away your hard earned on something you've never seen run before I will never know.